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, 2018 Vol. 51, Issue. 11
Development of groundwater level monitoring and forecasting technique for drought analysis (Ⅱ) - Groundwater drought forecasting Using SPI, SGI and ANN
Lee, Jeongju1,*   Kang, Shinuk2   Kim, Taeho1   Chun, Gunil1   

1Water Data Collection and Analysis Department, K-water
2K-water Convergence Institute

2018.. 1021:1029
 
 
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A primary objective of this study is to develop a drought forecasting technique based on groundwater which can be exploit for water supply under drought stress. For this purpose, we explored the lagged relationships between regionalized SGI (standardized groundwater level index) and SPI (standardized precipitation index) in view of the drought propagation. A regional prediction model was constructed using a NARX (nonlinear autoregressive exogenous) artificial neural network model which can effectively capture nonlinear relationships with the lagged independent variable. During the training phase, model performance in terms of correlation coefficient was found to be satisfactory with the correlation coefficient over 0.7. Moreover, the model performance was described by root mean squared error (RMSE). It can be concluded that the proposed approach is able to provide a reliable SGI forecasts along with rainfall forecasts provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration.

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Journal Title : J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc.
Volume : 51
No : 11
Page : pp 1021~1029
Received Date : 07.04.2018
Revised Date : 09.14.2018
Accepted Date : 09.14.2018
Doi : https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.11.1021
 
 
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