Uncertainty assessment of ensemble streamflow prediction method

Seon-Ho Kim; Shin-Uk Kang; Deg-Hyo Bae

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.6.523

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2018 Vol.51, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Uncertainty assessment of ensemble streamflow prediction method 앙상블 유량예측기법의 불확실성 평가

30 June 2018. pp. 523-533

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Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze uncertainties of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method for model parameters and input data. ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) and BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) based on ABCD rainfall-runoff model were selected as streamflow prediction method. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) was applied for the analysis of parameter uncertainty. The analysis of input uncertainty was performed according to the duration of meteorological scenarios for ESP. The result showed that parameter uncertainty was much more significant than input uncertainty for the ensemble-based streamflow prediction. It also indicated that the duration of observed meteorological data was appropriate to using more than 20 years. And the BAYES-ESP was effective to reduce uncertainty of ESP method. It is concluded that this analysis is meaningful for elaborating characteristics of ESP method and error factors of ensemble-based streamflow prediction method.

Keywords

Dam inflow prediction

Ensemble-based streamflow prediction

GLUE method

Uncertainty assessment

본 연구에서는 충주댐 유역에 대해 앙상블 유량예측기법의 강우-유출 모델 매개변수, 입력자료에 따른 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 앙상블 유량 예측기법으로는 ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) 기법과 BAYES-ESP (Bayesian-ESP) 기법을 활용하였으며, 강우-유출 모델로는 ABCD 를 활용하였다. 모델 매개변수에 따른 불확실성 분석은 GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) 기법을 적용하였으며, 입력자 료에 따른 불확실성 분석은 유량예측 앙상블에 활용되는 기상시나리오의 기간에 따라 수행하였다. 연구결과 앙상블 유량예측 기법은 입력자료 보 다 모델 매개변수의 영향을 크게 받았으며, 20년 이상의 관측 기상자료가 확보되었을 때 활용하는 것이 적절하였다. 또한 BAYES-ESP는 ESP에 비 해 불확실성을 감소시킬 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 불확실성 분석을 통해 앙상블 유량예측기법의 특징을 규명하고 오차의 원인을 분석하 였다는 점에서 가치가 있다고 판단된다.

키워드

댐 유입량 예측

앙상블 유량예측기법

GLUE 기법

불확실성 평가

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 51
No :6
Pages :523-533
Received Date : 2018-02-10
Revised Date : 2018-03-20
Accepted Date : 2018-03-21
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.6.523

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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