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2020 Vol.53, Issue 5

Research Article

Development of index for flood risk assessment on national scale and future outlook

전국 단위 홍수위험도 평가를 위한 지수 개발과 미래 전망

Daeho Kima
,
Young-Oh Kimb*
,
Hee Won Jeec
,
Tae-Ho Kangd
김 대호a
,
김 영오b*
,
지 희원c
,
강 태호d
aMS student, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University
bProfessor, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University
cMS student, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering., Seoul National University
dSenior Researcher, Institute of Construction & Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University
a서울대학교 건설환경공학부 석사과정
b서울대학교 건설환경공학부 교수
c서울대학교 건설환경공학부 석사과정
d서울대학교 건설환경종합연구소 선임연구원
* Corresponding Author
31 May 2020. pp. 323-336
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Abstract

Owing to climate change, the annual precipitation in Korea has increased since the 20th century, and it is projected to continue increasing in the future. This trend of increasing precipitation will raise the possibility of floods; hence, it is necessary to establish national adaptation plans for floods, based on a reasonable flood risk assessment. Therefore, this study focuses on developing a framework that can assess the flood risk across the country, as well as computing the flood risk index (FRI). The framework, which is based on IPCC AR5, is established as a combination of three indicators: hazard, exposure, and capacity. A data-based approach was used, and the weights of each component were assigned to improve the validity of the FRI. A Spearman correlation analysis between the FRI and flood damage verified that the index was capable of assessing potential flood damage. When predicting scenarios for future assessment using the HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the flood risk tends to be lower in the early and mid-21st century, and it becomes higher at the end of the 21st century as compared with the present.

Keywords
Climate change
Flood risk
Adaptation plan

기후변화로 인하여 한국의 연 강수량은 20세기부터 증가해 왔으며 미래에도 계속 증가할 것이라 전망되고 있다. 이와 함께 홍수 발생 가능성이 동반 상승하고 있기에 합리적인 홍수위험도 평가에 기반한 국가 단위 적응정책 수립이 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 전국의 홍수위험도를 일괄적으로 평가할 수 있는 체계를 정의하고 홍수위험지수(Flood Risk Index, FRI)를 산정했다. IPCC AR5의 개념을 참고하여 위험도를 위해, 노출, 대응능력의 조합으로 평가하는 체계를 확립하였다. FRI는 자료 기반으로 산출되었으며, 요소별 가중치를 부여하여 설명력 향상을 도모하였다. FRI와 피해자료 간 스피어만(Spearman) 상관성 분석을 한 결과 적절한 수준으로 잠재적인 홍수피해 크기를 평가할 수 있다는 것이 검증되었다. 미래 홍수위험도 평가를 위해 HadGEM3-RA 기반의 RCP 4.5, 8.5 시나리오를 투영했을 때 21세기 초, 중반에는 약화되었다가 21세기 말엔 현재보다 높은 위험도를 보이는 경향이 있었다.

키워드
기후변화
홍수위험도
적응정책
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 53
  • No :5
  • Pages :323-336
  • Received Date : 2020-02-07
  • Revised Date : 2020-03-13
  • Accepted Date : 2020-03-13
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.5.323
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