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Research Article

SWAT model calibration/validation using SWAT-CUP Ⅱ: analysis for uncertainties of simulation run/iteration number

SWAT-CUP을 이용한 SWAT 모형 검·보정 Ⅱ: 모의 실행 및 반복 횟수에 따른 불확실성 분석

Jisoo Yua
,
Joonwoo Nohb
,
Younghyun Choc*
유 지수a
,
노 준우b
,
조 영현c*
aResearcher, Integrated Water Resources Management Research Center, K-water Research Institute
bHead Researcher, Integrated Water Resources Management Research Center, K-water Research Institute
cPrincipal Researcher, Korea-Mekong Water Resources Management Collaboration Research Center, K-water Research Institute
aK-water연구원 통합물관리연구소 연구원
bK-water연구원 통합물관리연구소 수석연구원
cK-water연구원 한-메콩물관리연구센터 책임연구원
* Corresponding Author
31 May 2020. pp. 347-356
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Abstract

The main objective of the study is to propose the most efficient SWAT model calibration method using SWAT-CUP with less computing time and high performance. In order to achieve the goal, Case1-3 (250, 500, and 1,000 simulation runs) and Case4 (1,000 simulation runs in the first iteration and then 500 simulation runs for the following iterations) were defined to compare the results. When evaluating the values of the objective function, Case2 and Case3 reached the same value after the fourth iteration, and Case1 reached the closed value of Case2-3 after the eighth iteration. However, the final estimates of the parameters had different ranges in Cases1-3, and only the results of Case3 and Case4 converged similarly. Thus, it can be considered that the parameter calibration results are highly affected by the initial number of simulation runs. On the other hand, SWAT simulation results did not show the significant difference after the first iteration, unlike the parameter ranges. From the analysis results, we can conclude that the most suitable and effective method was to repeat one or two times of iterations with a sufficient number of simulation runs, as in Case4.

Keywords
SWAT
SWAT-CUP
Parameter calibration
Number of simulation run/iteration
Uncertainty

본 연구에서는 SWAT-CUP 프로그램을 이용한 SWAT 모형 매개변수 검·보정 수행 시 적은 계산 소요시간으로 모의 성능을 극대화할 수 있는 매개변수 보정 방안을 결정하기 위해 모의 실행 횟수에 따라 Case1~3(250, 500, 1,000번) 및 Case4(초기 1,000번, 이후 500번)로 구분하고, 이들 모의의 반복에 따른 보정 결과를 비교하였다. 선정한 목적함수에 대하여 모의 성능을 평가한 결과 각 모의 수행의 4번째 반복 이후 Case2와 Case3의 목적함수가 같은 값(MNS 0.64)에 도달했으며, 8번째 이후부터는 Case1의 목적함수도 유사한 값에 도달하는 것을 확인하였다. 그러나 매개변수의 최종 산정 값은 Case1~3이 모두 상이하게 나타났으며, Case3과 Case4의 결과만 유사하게 수렴되는 것을 확인하였다. 이의 분석을 통해 보정 결과는 매개변수 값 산정을 위한 초기 모의 실행 횟수에 큰 영향을 받는다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 반면, 초기의 매개변수 변화 폭과는 다르게 이의 반복을 통한 SWAT 모의 수행 결과는 크게 달라지지 않았다. 이와 같은 결과를 종합하여 Case4와 같이 1,000번 이상의 충분한 모의 실행 횟수 설정 후 초기 1-2회 정도 반복 수행하고, 그 이후는 모의 횟수를 줄여서 반복하는 것을 가장 효율적인 SWAT-CUP을 이용한 SWAT 모형 검·보정 방안으로 제시할 수 있었다.

키워드
SWAT
SWAT-CUP
매개변수 보정
모의 실행/반복 횟수
불확실성
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 53
  • No :5
  • Pages :347-356
  • Received Date : 2020-03-09
  • Revised Date : 2020-03-26
  • Accepted Date : 2020-03-26
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.5.347
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