The probabilistic estimation of inundation region using a multiple logistic regression analysis

Minkyu Jung; Jin-Guk Kim; Sumiya Uranchimeg; Hyun-Han Kwon

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.2.121

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2020 Vol.53, Issue 2 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

The probabilistic estimation of inundation region using a multiple logistic regression analysis 다중 Logistic 회귀분석을 통한 침수지역의 확률적 도출

29 February 2020. pp. 121-129

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Abstract

The increase of impervious surface and development along the river due to urbanization not only causes an increase in the number of associated flood risk factors but also exacerbates flood damage, leading to difficulties in flood management. Flood control measures should be prioritized based on various geographical information in urban areas. In this study, a probabilistic flood hazard assessment was applied to flood-prone areas near an urban river. Flood hazard maps were alternatively considered and used to describe the expected inundation areas for a given set of predictors such as elevation, slope, runoff curve number, and distance to river. This study proposes a Bayesian logistic regression-based flood risk model that aims to provide a probabilistic risk metric such as population-at-risk (PAR). Finally, the logistic regression model demonstrates the probabilistic flood hazard maps for the entire area.

Keywords

GIS

Bayesian inference

Flood hazard map

Logistic regression

도시화로 인한 불투수층 증가와 하천 주변 개발은 홍수 시 위험에 노출되는 재해요인의 증가뿐 아니라 피해의 파급을 발생시켜 홍수 관리 측면에서 어려움을 낳는다. 홍수 방재대책을 위해서는 도시지역에 분포하는 다양한 지표면 공간특성을 반영하여 침수가 예상되는 지역에 대한 파악이 우선시되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 도시하천의 홍수 위험지역을 대상으로 확률적 홍수위험 평가가 수행되었다. 홍수와 관련된 지형적 영향요인인 고도, 경사, 유출곡선지수, 하천까지 거리를 예측변수로 하여 하천 주변 침수 예상지역을 설명하기 위해 모형의 학습데이터로 100년 빈도 홍수위험지도가 사용되었다. 연구 대상 지역은 격자로 변환하여 Bayesian Logistic 회귀분석을 수행하여 각 격자별로 홍수영향요인이 침수 여부를 설명하는 모형을 구축하였다. 최종적으로 모형을 통해 대상 지역 전체에 대하여 침수위험도를 확률적으로 제시하였다.

키워드

로지스틱 회귀분석 베이지안 추론

지형정보

통계적 기법

홍수위험지도

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 53
No :2
Pages :121-129
Received Date : 2019-11-25
Revised Date : 2020-01-16
Accepted Date : 2020-01-16
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.2.121

Journal of Korea Water Resources AssociationISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online)한국수자원학회

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