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Research Article

Analysis of climate change impact on flow duration characteristics in the Mekong River

기후변화에 따른 메콩강 유역의 미래 유황변화 분석

Daeeop Leea
,
Giha Leeb*
,
Bonggeun Songc
,
Seungsoo Leed
이 대업a
,
이 기하b*
,
송 봉근c
,
이 승수d
aPh.D Candidate, Department of Disaster Prevention and Environmental Engineering, Kyungpook National University
bProfessor, Department of Disaster Prevention and Environmental Engineering, Kyungpook National University
cResearch Engineer, Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center
dResearch Engineer, Climate Services and Research Department, APEC Climate Center
a경북대학교 건설방재공학과 박사과정
b경북대학교 건설방재공학과 교수
cAPEC 기후센터 기후사업본부 선임연구원
dAPEC 기후센터 기후사업본부 선임연구원
* Corresponding Author
31 January 2019. pp. 71-82
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the Mekong River streamflow alteration due to climate change. The future climate change scenarios were produced by bias corrections of the data from East Asia RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, given by HadGEM3-RA. Then, SWAT model was used for discharge simulation of the Kratie, the main point of the Mekong River (watershed area: 646,000 km2 , 88% of the annual average flow rate of the Mekong River). As a result of the climate change analysis, the annual precipitation of the Kratie upper-watershed increase in both scenarios compared to the baseline yearly average precipitation. The monthly precipitation increase is relatively large from June to November. In particular, precipitation fluctuated greatly in the RCP 8.5 rather than RCP 4.5. Monthly average maximum and minimum temperature are predicted to be increased in both scenarios. As well as precipitation, the temperature increase in RCP 8.5 scenarios was found to be more significant than RCP 4.5. In addition, as a result of the duration curve comparison, the streamflow variation will become larger in low and high flow rate and the drought will be further intensified in the future.

Keywords
Climate change
Mekong river
SWAT
Rainfall-runoff
Duration curve

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 메콩강 유출변화 분석을 목적으로 하고 있다. HadGEM3-RA로 부터 생산된 동아시아 지역 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 일 자료를 기반으로 편의보정을 통해 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 구축한 후, SWAT 모형을 이용하여 메콩강 주요지점인 Kratie(유역면적: 646,000 km2, 메콩강의 연평균 유량의 88%)에서의 유출변화 모의하고 유황분석을 수행하였다. 기후변화 분석 결과 Kratie 유역의 미래 강수량은 기준 년 연평균 강수량 대비 미래 년 기간의 연평균 강수량은 두 시나리오 모두 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며 월별 강수량 변화 분석을 통해 6월∼11월에 강수량의 증가가 비교적 크게 나타나며 특히 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 강수량의 변동 폭 및 증가량이 크게 나타남을 확인하였다. 시나리오별 월평균 최대 및 최소기온의 변화는 두 시나리오 모두 미래 기온의 상승을 전망하고 있으며 특히 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 온도증가 폭이 크게 나타나는 것을 확인 하였다. 또한 하천유황변화 분석결과 유역의 유량변동성이 더욱 커질 것으로 분석되었으며 저수계수 값이 52∼57% 감소하고 갈수계수 값이 67∼74% 감소하는 것으로 나타나 하천의 갈수상황이 지속되어 미래에 가뭄이 보다 심화될 것으로 분석되었다.

키워드
기후변화
메콩강
SWAT
강우-유출
유황분석
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 52
  • No :1
  • Pages :71-82
  • Received Date : 2018-10-01
  • Revised Date : 2018-12-03; 2018-12-04
  • Accepted Date : 2018-12-04
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2019.52.1.71
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