Comparative analysis of ENSO and AO periodic influences on Korean snowfall using Wavelet coherence

Hyeongjoo Lee; Gunhui Chung

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.12.1323

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2025 Vol.58, Issue 12 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Comparative analysis of ENSO and AO periodic influences on Korean snowfall using Wavelet coherence 웨이블릿 일치성 분석을 통한 ENSO 및 AO의 주기적 영향 비교와 한국 적설량 응답 특성

31 December 2025. pp. 1323-1335

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Abstract

This study investigates the spatiotemporal coherence between snowfall in South Korea and two major climate oscillation indices—El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO, Niño 3.4 index) and Arctic Oscillation (AO)—over the period from 2005 to 2024. Using daily snowfall data from nationwide ASOS stations and monthly ENSO/AO indices, wavelet transform coherence (WTC) analysis was employed to capture the frequency- and time-specific relationships between the indices and snowfall. The results indicate that ENSO exerts a persistent and long-term influence on Korean snowfall, with a peak coherence of 0.837 at a 48-month periodicity. ENSO-related episodes such as El Niño and La Niña coincide with elevated coherence and a lagging phase response from snowfall, suggesting its predictive utility. In contrast, AO demonstrated intermittent and short-term coherence patterns, peaking at a 28-month period (coherence = 0.688) but showing greater temporal variability and regional disparity. These findings highlight the contrasting dynamical roles of oceanic and atmospheric oscillations in modulating winter snowfall patterns over Korea and offer insights for improved seasonal forecasting and climate risk management strategies.

Keywords

Snowfall

ENSO

Wavelet coherence analysis

본 연구는 2005년부터 2024년까지의 기간 동안, 대한민국 전역의 적설량과 주요 기후 요동 지수인 엘니뇨-남방진동(ENSO, Niño 3.4 지수) 및 북극진동(AO) 간의 시공간적 파동 일치성을 분석하였다. 전국 ASOS 관측소의 일별 적설 자료와 ENSO/AO 월별 지수를 활용하여, 시간-주파수 영역에서의 상관 구조를 파악하기 위해 연속 웨이블릿 일치성(WTC) 분석을 적용하였다. 분석 결과, ENSO는 48개월 주기에서 최대 coherence (0.837)를 기록하며, 장기적이고 구조적인 영향력을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 El Niño 및 La Niña 발생 시기에 coherence가 상승하며, 적설량의 위상 반응이 후행하는 양상이 관측되어 예측 지표로서의 가능성을 보인다. 반면 AO는 28개월 주기에서 coherence 0.688을 기록하였으나, 시간적 변동성이 크고 지역별 편차가 뚜렷한 단기적 영향 특성을 보였다. 이러한 결과는 해양성과 대기성 기후 요동이 한국 겨울철 적설 패턴에 상이한 방식으로 작용함을 보여주며, 계절 예보 정밀도 향상 및 기후 리스크 대응 전략 수립에 실질적 기여를 할 수 있다.

키워드

적설량

ENSO

웨이블릿 일치성 분석

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 58
No :12
Pages :1323-1335
Received Date : 2025-10-31
Accepted Date : 2025-11-10
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.12.1323

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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