Evaluating the economic benefit of diverse drought mitigation strategies for Korean reservoir systems based on simulated inflow sequences

Sukwang Ji; Geumchae Shin; Seungyub Lee; Kuk-Hyun Ahn

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.8.485

All Issue

2023 Vol.56, Issue 8 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Evaluating the economic benefit of diverse drought mitigation strategies for Korean reservoir systems based on simulated inflow sequences 유입량 모의 기법을 활용한 국내 다목적댐 가뭄 대책의 경제적 효과 평가

31 August 2023. pp. 485-496

PDF XML

Abstract

Recently, South Korea has been making efforts to mitigate the risk of water scarcity during droughts by utilizing various drought response measures in dam operations. While various studies have been conducted on this topic, there is currently a lack of research on the economic effects of drought response measures. In this study, we evaluated the economic effects of drought response measures on nationwide multipurpose dams by using a long-term simulated inflow model based on ARIMA and Copula and a dam operation model that reflects drought response measures. The results showed that the expected benefits per unit flow rate were highest for coordinated operation and alternative water supply measures, at KRW 1,176 and KRW 1,139, respectively, while the benefits of emergency water supply utilization and water supply adjustment were estimated at KRW 956 and KRW 875, respectively. Additionally, when we examined the changes in the economic benefits of drought response measures based on the assumption of increased drought severity in the future, the changes in the drought risk resulting from reduced inflow increased the economic benefits of all drought response measures. The economic benefits of water supply adjustment increased by 2.6% compared to the baseline, while the economic benefits of coordinated operation and alternative water supply measures increased by 11.7% compared to the baseline. This suggests that dam-network-based measures, such as coordinated operation and alternative water supply measures, are crucial as drought risk increases. This study is expected to serve as a fundamental reference for selecting and utilizing drought response measures in the future.

Keywords

Drought mitigation strategy

Economic impact assessment

Simulated inflow volume

Dam operation model

최근 우리나라는 댐 운영에 있어서 다양한 가뭄 대책을 활용하여 가뭄 시 물 부족의 위험 리스크를 줄이기 위해 노력하고 있다. 이를 중심으로 다양한 연구들이 수행되었지만 가뭄 대책의 효과를 경제적인 측면에서 살펴본 연구는 현재 전무한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 ARIMA와 Copula 기반의 장기간 모의 유입량 생성 모형과 댐별 가뭄 대책을 반영한 댐 운영 모형을 활용하여 전국의 다목적댐을 대상으로 가뭄 대책 시행에 따른 경제적 효과를 평가하였다. 경제적 편익 산정 결과 연계 운영·대체 공급과 비상공급대책의 단위 유량 당 기대 편익이 각각 1,176원과 1,139원으로 가장 높으며, 비상 용량 활용과 용수공급조정의 편익은 956원과 875원으로 추정된다. 추가로 미래에 가뭄이 심화된다는 가정을 기반으로 가뭄 대책의 경제적 편익의 변화에 대하여 살펴본 결과 유입량 감소로 인한 가뭄 리스크의 변화는 모든 가뭄 대책의 경제적 편익을 높이는 효과를 보였다. 용수공급조정의 경제적 효과는 기존 대비 2.6% 상승하였으나, 연계 운영·대체 공급의 경제적 효과는 기존 대비 11.7% 상승하였다. 이는 가뭄의 위험도가 증가할수록 연계 운영과 대체 공급과 같은 댐 네트워크 기반의 대책이 주요한 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구는 향후 가뭄 대책의 선정과 활용에 있어서 기본자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

키워드

가뭄 대책

경제적 효과 평가

모의 유입량

댐 운영 모형

References

Ahn, J.H., Lee, Y., and Jaeeung, Y. (2016). "Improving the water yield capabilities using reservoir emergency storage and water supply adjustment standard." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 49, No. 12, pp. 1027-1034. 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.12.1027

Ahn, K.H. (2021). "Streamflow estimation at partially gaged sites using multiple-dependence conditions via vine copulas." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, HESS, Vol. 3250, No. 8, pp. 4319-4333. 10.5194/hess-25-4319-2021

Ahn, K.H and Palmer, R.N. (2016). "Use of a nonstationary copula to predict future bivariate low flow frequency in the Connecticut River Basin." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 30, No. 19, pp. 3518-3532. 10.1002/hyp.10876

Ahn, S.E., Lee, H.L., Park, Y.S., Hong, H.J., Suh Y.-W, Kim, C.-K., Han, S.Y., Jung, D.W., and Jaeeung, Y. (2021). Intergrated assessment to environmental valuation via impact pathway analysis: Sectoral assessment. Korea Environment Institute.

Bayazit, M., and Ünal, N.E. (1990). "Effects of hedging on reservoir performance." Water Resources Research, AGU, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 713-719. 10.1029/WR026i004p00713

Chae, K.S., Kim, H.S., Lim, Y.A., and Kim, B.Y. (2016). The economic effects of droughts: Focused on rice production. Korea Rural Economic Institute.

Chah, J., Yu, Y., and Lee, H. (2018). "A study on value estimation of water resources using benefit transfer method focusing on meta-regression analysis." Journal of Environmental Policy and Administration, KEPAS, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 105-122. 10.15301/jepa.2018.26.4.105

Joe, H. (2005). "Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models." Journal of Multivariate Analysis, JMVA, Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 401-419. 10.1016/j.jmva.2004.06.003

K-water (2022). Determination of the optimal river maintenance water reduction by reflecting the characteristics of each multi-purpose dam in the Geumgang Basin.

Kwon, O.S. (2006). "Valuing recreational benefits of dam lakes using a choice experiment approah." Environmental and Resource Economics Review, KEEA, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 555-574.

Lee, G.M., and Yi, J. (2012). "Analysis of emergency water supply effects of multipurpose dams using water shortage index." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 45, No. 11, pp. 1143-1156. 10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.11.1143

Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT) (2007). Building of value evaluation system of water resources and water related technology.

Nelsen, R.B. (2007). An introduction to Copulas, Springer-Verla, Springer Science & Business Media, Berlin, Germany.

Ni, L., Wang, D., Wu, J., Wang, Y., Tao, Y., Zhang, J., Liu, J., and Xie, F. (2020). "Vine copula selection using mutual information for hydrological dependence modeling." Environmental Research, Vol. 186, 109604. 10.1016/j.envres.2020.10960432380245

Park, S.-Y., Lim, S.-Y., Ryu, M., and Yoo, S.-H. (2015). "The recreational benefits of the Jangheung Multi-purpose Dam." Journal of Korea Regional Science Association, KRSA, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 79-97.

Pereira, G., and Veiga, A. (2019). "Periodic copula autoregressive model designed to multivariate streamflow time series modelling" Water Resources Management, EWRA, Vol. 33, pp. 3417-3413. 10.1007/s11269-019-02308-6

William, B.M., and Hoel, L.A. (2003). "Modeling and forecasting vehicular traffic flow as a seasonal ARIMA process theoretical basis and empirical results." Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, Vol. 129, No. 6, pp. 664-672. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2003)129:6(664)

Yoo, S.-H., Lee, G.-M., and Lee, E.-R. (2011). "Economic analysis of dam operation improvement by dam downstream river improvement works (II) - Economic benefit and cost allocation analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 44, No. 9, pp. 765-776. 10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.9.765

Yoon, D.H., Nam, W.-H., Jeon, M.-G., An, H., Yoo, D.G., and Park, M.J. (2022). "Assessment of regional drought preparedness and response capacity on the basis of water resources shortage." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, KOSHAM, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 39-46. 10.9798/KOSHAM.2022.22.2.39

Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 56
No :8
Pages :485-496
Received Date : 2023-04-26
Revised Date : 2023-07-31
Accepted Date : 2023-07-31
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.8.485

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

All Issue