Integrated flood risk assessment of domestic local governments using the Delphi-AHP technique

Sun-Kwon Yoon; Junseo Yoon; Hyeonseok Choi; Minseok Kim; Sung-Hwan Hwang

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.12.1487

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2025 Vol.58, Issue 12 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Integrated flood risk assessment of domestic local governments using the Delphi-AHP technique Delphi-AHP 기법을 활용한 국내 지자체 통합홍수 위험도 평가

31 December 2025. pp. 1487-1499

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Abstract

This study aims to develop and validate a mid- to long-term integrated flood risk assessment model to address the growing flood hazards driven by climate change and to overcome the limitations of conventional short-term, event-focused approaches. To this end, a multi-criteria decision-making framework was constructed by combining the Delphi method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A multidimensional assessment system was then established, comprising three major categories—meteorological/climatic, socio- economic, and policy/institutional factors—and twelve detailed indicators. The proposed model distinguishes itself from hazard history–based assessments by comprehensively incorporating climate prediction uncertainties, societal structural vulnerabilities, and institutional response capacities. AHP results indicate that the meteorological/climatic category carries the highest weight (0.512), identifying it as the primary driver of flood risk variability, while “variability in mid- to long-term precipitation forecasts” emerged as the most influential indicator (0.203). Furthermore, analysis using the integrated risk index revealed that flood risk increases by more than 15% during El Niño phases compared to normal conditions, quantitatively demonstrating the impact of seasonal and climatic fluctuations on disaster management. The study is expected to provide an effective foundation for scientifically integrating mid- to long-term climate prediction information into disaster management decision-making.

Keywords

Delphi-AHP

Integrated flood risk assessment

Multidimensional evaluation

Disaster prevention

본 연구는 기후변화로 인한 홍수 위험의 증대에 대응하여 기존의 단기·사건 중심적 접근의 한계를 보완할 수 있는 중·장기적 통합 홍수 위험 평가 모델을 개발·검증하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 이를 위해 델파이(Delphi) 기법과 계층분석기법(AHP)을 결합한 다중기준 의사결정 프레임워크를 구축하고, 기상·기후, 사회·경제, 정책·제도 등 3개 대분류와 12개 세부 지표로 구성된 다차원적 평가 체계를 정립하였다. 본 모델은 기후 예측의 불확실성, 사회 구조적 취약성, 제도적 대응 역량을 통합적으로 반영함으로써 재해 발생 이력 기반 평가 방식과 차별성을 갖는다. AHP 분석 결과, ‘기상·기후’ 부문이 가장 높은 가중치(0.512)를 보이며 핵심 영향 요인으로 확인되었고, ‘중장기 강수량 예측 변동성’이 최우선 세부 지표(0.203)로 도출되었다. 또한 통합 위험 지수를 활용한 분석에서 엘니뇨 단계 발생 시 홍수 위험 지수가 평년 대비 15% 이상 상승함을 확인하여, 계절·기후 변동성이 재난 관리에 미치는 정량적 영향을 제시하였다. 본 연구는 중·장기 기후 예측 정보를 재난 관리 의사결정에 과학적으로 통합할 수 있는 실효적 기반을 제공할 것으로 기대한다.

키워드

델파이-AHP

통합 홍수 위험 평가

다차원 평가

재난 예방

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 58
No :12
Pages :1487-1499
Received Date : 2025-12-03
Accepted Date : 2025-12-09
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.12.1487

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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