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2022 Vol.55, Issue 9 Preview Page

Research Article

A study on prediction method for flood risk using LENS and flood risk matrix

국지 앙상블자료와 홍수위험매트릭스를 이용한 홍수위험도 예측 방법 연구

Cheonkyu Choia
,
Kyungtak Kimb*
,
Yunseok Choic
최 천규a
,
김 경탁b*
,
최 윤석c
aResearch Specialist, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
bSenior Rsearch Fellow, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
cRsearch Fellow, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
a한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 전임연구원
b한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 선임연구위원
c한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 연구위원
*Corresponding Author
30 September 2022. pp. 657-668
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Abstract

With the occurrence of localized heavy rain while river flow has increased, both flow and rainfall cause riverside flood damages. As the degree of damage varies according to the level of social and economic impact, it is required to secure sufficient forecast lead time for flood response in areas with high population and asset density. In this study, the author established a flood risk matrix using ensemble rainfall runoff modeling and evaluated its applicability in order to increase the damage reduction effect by securing the time required for flood response. The flood risk matrix constructs the flood damage impact level (X-axis) using flood damage data and predicts the likelihood of flood occurrence (Y-axis) according to the result of ensemble rainfall runoff modeling using LENS rainfall data and as well as probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, the author introduced a method for determining the impact level of flood damage using historical flood damage data and quantitative flood damage assessment methods. It was compared with the existing flood warning data and the damage situation at the flood warning points in the Taehwa River Basin and the Hyeongsan River Basin in the Nakdong River Region. As a result, the analysis showed that it was possible to predict the time and degree of flood risk from up to three days in advance. Hence, it will be helpful for damage reduction activities by securing the lead time for flood response.

Keywords
LENS
Flood risk matrix
Impact level
Lead time

하천 유량이 증가된 상태에서 집중호우의 발생은 유량과 강우량 모두 하천변 홍수피해에 영향을 미치게 된다. 또한, 하천변 사회․경제적 영향 수준에 따라 피해정도에 차이를 보이게 되며, 특히, 인구 및 자산 밀집도가 높은 경우 홍수대응에 필요한 충분한 예보 선행시간의 확보가 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 홍수대응에 필요한 시간적 여유의 확보를 통한 피해저감 효과를 증대하기 위해 앙상블 강우유출모델링을 활용한 홍수위험매트릭스를 구축하고, 그 적용성을 판단하고자 한다. 홍수위험매트릭스는 홍수피해 자료를 활용한 홍수피해 영향수준(X축)을 구성하고, 기상청 LENS 강우자료를 이용한 앙상블 강우유출모델링의 결과로 위험 홍수량의 발생 가능성을 예측(Y축)하여 확률예보에 기반한 예측이 가능하다. 이를 위해 과거 홍수피해 자료 및 정량적 홍수피해 평가방법을 이용한 홍수피해 영향수준 결정 방법을 제시하였다. 낙동강권역의 태화강유역 및 형산강유역의 홍수특보지점에 대하여 기존 홍수특보 자료 그리고 피해 발생 상황과 비교하였다. 그 결과 최대 3일전부터 홍수위험 발생시간 및 정도에 대한 예측이 가능한 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 홍수대응에 필요한 예보 선행시간 확보를 통한 피해저감 활동에 도움이 되리라 판단된다.

키워드
국지앙상블모델
홍수위험 매트릭스
영향수준
선행시간
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 55
  • No :9
  • Pages :657-668
  • Received Date : 2022-07-15
  • Revised Date : 2022-08-27
  • Accepted Date : 2022-08-29
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.9.657
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