Drought risk assessment considering regional socio-economic factors and water supply system

Ji Eun Kim; Min Ji Kim; Sijung Choi; Joo-Heon Lee; Tae-Woong Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.8.589

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2022 Vol.55, Issue 8 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Drought risk assessment considering regional socio-economic factors and water supply system 지역의 사회･경제적 인자와 용수공급체계를 고려한 가뭄 위험도 평가

31 August 2022. pp. 589-601

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Abstract

Although drought is a natural phenomenon, its damage occurs in combination with regional physical and social factors. Especially, related to the supply and demand of various waters, drought causes great socio-economic damage. Even meteorological droughts occur with similar severity, its impact varies depending on the regional characteristics and water supply system. Therefore, this study assessed regional drought risk considering regional socio-economic factors and water supply system. Drought hazard was assessed by grading the joint drought management index (JDMI) which represents water shortage. Drought vulnerability was assessed by weighted averaging 10 socio-economic factors using Entropy, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Drought response capacity that represents regional water supply factors was assessed by employing Bayesian networks. Drought risk was determined by multiplying a cubic root of the hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. For the drought hazard meaning the possibility of failure to supply water, Goesan-gun was the highest at 0.81. For the drought vulnerability, Daejeon was most vulnerable at 0.61. Considering the regional water supply system, Sejong had the lowest drought response capacity. Finally, the drought risk was the highest in Cheongju-si. This study identified the regional drought risk and vulnerable causes of drought, which is useful in preparing drought mitigation policy considering the regional characteristics in the future.

Keywords

Joint drought management index

Bayesian network

Water supply system

Drought risk

가뭄은 자연적 현상이지만, 지역의 물리적 및 사회적 요소와 결합되어 피해가 발생한다. 특히, 각종 용수 공급 및 수요과 연관되어 사회경제적으로 큰 피해를 야기시킨다. 비슷한 심도의 기상학적 가뭄에도 지역의 특성과 용수공급체계에 따라 실제로 발생하는 가뭄 피해는 다르다. 본 연구에서는 지역의 사회·경제적 인자와 용수공급체계를 고려하여 가뭄 위험도를 평가하였다. 노출성은 용수공급 과부족량을 나타내는 결합가뭄관리지수(JDMI)를 등급화하여 평가하였다. 취약성은 가뭄에 영향을 받는 10개의 사회·경제적 인자에 엔트로피, PCA 및 GMM를 적용하여 가중평균하여 평가하였다. 대응능력은 지역의 용수능력을 나타내는 인자들을 베이지안 네트워크에 적용하여 평가하였다. 위험도는 노출성, 취약성 및 대응능력을 통합하여 결정하였다. 용수공급 실패 사상의 발생 가능성을 의미하는 가뭄 노출성을 평가한 결과, 괴산군이 0.81로 가장 높게 나타났다. 가뭄 취약성의 경우, 대전광역시가 0.61로 매우 취약한 것으로 나타났다. 지역의 용수공급체계가 고려된 가뭄 대응능력을 평가한 결과, 세종시가 가뭄 대응능력이 가장 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 위험도를 평가한 결과, 청주시가 가장 높게 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 통해 가뭄에 대한 위험 및 취약 원인을 파악하였으며, 향후 지역의 특성을 고려한 가뭄 피해 저감 정책 마련이 가능하다.

키워드

결합가뭄관리지수

베이지안 네트워크

용수공급체계

가뭄 위험도

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 55
No :8
Pages :589-601
Received Date : 2022-05-08
Revised Date : 2022-07-07
Accepted Date : 2022-07-08
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.8.589

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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