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2026 Vol.59, Issue 5
Identification of drought hotspot considering spatiotemporal drought compound propagation

가뭄의 시·공간적 복합 전이를 고려한 가뭄 위험지역 식별

Ho Jun Sona
,
Ji Eun Kimb
,
Jeongwoo Hanc
,
Joo-Heon Leed
,
Tae-Woong Kime*
손 호준a
,
김 지은b
,
한 정우c
,
이 주헌d
,
김 태웅e*
aPh.D. Student, Department of Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea
bPostdoctoral Researcher, Institute of Engineering and Technology, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea
cProfessor. Department of Civil Engineering, Kunsan National University, Kunsan, Korea
dProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Engineering, Joonbu University, Goyang, Korea
eProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering/Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea
a한양대학교 대학원 스마트시티공학과 박사과정
b한양대학교(ERICA) 공학기술연구소 박사후연구원
c국립군산대학교 토목공학과 교수
d중부대학교 토목공학과 교수
e한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과/스마트시티공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 May 2026. pp. 419-431
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Abstract

Drought temporal propagation refers to the development of drought from meteorological to agricultural or hydrological droughts, while spatial propagation means the expansion of drought to adjacent regions. Previous studies have mainly analyzed temporal and spatial drought propagation separately, and thus have not sufficiently considered the spatio-temporal inter-dependencies of drought events. In this study, we clearly proposed criteria for distinguishing temporal and spatial drought propagation, and analyzed spatio-temporal compound propagation characteristics. The results indicated that propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought resulted in 60.8% longer drought duration compared to propagation to agricultural drought. Furthermore, we calculated the spatio-temporal compound propagation probabilities that simultaneously accounts for the spatial expansion of meteorological drought and its development into agricultural or hydrological droughts. The results showed that 49.1% of spatio-temporal compound propagation events occurred within four weeks after the onset of meteorological drought, which became more pronounced as meteorological droughts were prolonged. Based on these findings, we identified drought hotspot regions by considering drought spatial autocorrelation after integrating propagation probabilities as weighting factors to drought severity. The administrative district most frequently identified as a drought hotspot was Gangneung, with a frequency approximately 3.8 times higher than the average of other districts. The drought hotspot regions identified in this study represent drought risk clusters that simultaneously reflect current meteorological drought conditions and the potential for subsequent agricultural and hydrological droughts. Considering these findings, it is possible to develop preemptive drought preparedness strategies.

Keywords
Drought compound propagation
Propagation probability
Propagation characteristic
Drought hotspot

가뭄의 시간적 전이는 기상학적 가뭄이 농업적 및 수문학적 가뭄으로 발달하는 현상이며, 공간적 전이는 가뭄이 인접한 지역으로 확산하는 발달 과정이다. 선행 연구들은 주로 시간적 및 공간적 전이 과정을 구분하여 분석했기 때문에 가뭄의 시간적 및 공간적 연관성을 충분히 고려하지 못했다. 이에 본 연구에서는 가뭄의 시간적 및 공간적 전이에 대한 구분 기준을 명확히 제시하고, 시간적 및 공간적 전이를 동시에 고려하는 복합 전이 특성을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 기상학적 가뭄에서 수문학적 가뭄으로의 전이 현상이 농업적 가뭄으로의 전이에 비해 가뭄의 지속기간을 60.8% 더 연장하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 기상학적 가뭄에 대해 공간적 확산과 농업 및 수문학적 가뭄으로 발달하는 현상을 동시에 고려한 시·공간적 복합 전이 확률을 산정한 결과, 전체 시·공간적 복합 전이 현상의 49.1%가 기상학적 가뭄의 발생 이후 4주 이내에 발생했으며, 기상학적 가뭄이 길어질수록 지역 간 전이 확률의 차이가 커지는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 가뭄 심도에 전이 확률을 가중치로 적용하고 공간자기상관성을 고려하여 가뭄 위험지역을 식별하였다. 가장 높은 빈도로 가뭄 위험지역으로 식별된 행정구역은 강릉이며, 다른 행정구역들의 평균 빈도 보다 약 3.8배 높은 수준으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 제시한 가뭄 위험지역은 현재의 기상학적 가뭄 상태와 향후 농업 및 수문학적 가뭄으로의 발달 가능성을 동시에 고려한 위험군집을 나타내는 것으로, 이를 고려하여 가뭄의 선제적 대응 체계를 구축하는 것이 가능할 것이다.

키워드
가뭄 복합 전이
전이 확률
전이 특성
가뭄 위험지역
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 59
  • No :5
  • Pages :419-431
  • Received Date : 2025-11-17
  • Revised Date : 2026-01-01
  • Accepted Date : 2026-01-19
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.5.419
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