Development of an evaluation index based on supply capacity for practical evaluation of drought resilience

Gi Joo Kim; Jiheun Kim; Seung Beom Seo; Young-Oh Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.1.11

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2023 Vol.56, Issue 1 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Development of an evaluation index based on supply capacity for practical evaluation of drought resilience 현실적 가뭄대응력 평가를 위한 공급가능일수 기반의 평가지표 개발

31 January 2023. pp. 11-21

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Abstract

This study suggests the drought resilience index as S-day as a means of preparing for the recent extreme drought, allowing for the actual operational identification of each drought countermeasure's priority as well as the vulnerability of water resource facilities to drought. Although each dam's drought measures are unique in this case, the representative examples include adjusting the water supply, linking the functioning of various facilities, and considering emergency capacity. Here, 15 multipurpose dams and water supply dams in Korea were inspected. Under the return period of 20-year drought, most of dams showed stable by adjusting the water supply overall. The measures, however, did not seem to be able to resist a multi-year drought lasting more than two years. Besides, Hoengseong and Anodong-Imha Dam only lasted a year under the 100-year drought return period with other measures. Without the deployment of drought mitigation strategies, it is expected that the Hoengseong Dam, Andong-Imha Dam, Gunwi Dam, Unmun Dam, Daecheong Dam, and Juam Dam would not be able to meet the all water demand for a year under the 20-year drought condition. The ideal capacity for each drought measure was then suggested. Additionally, by increasing or decreasing the current supply contract by 10% in order to account for demand changes resulting from socio-economic instability, the drought response capacity of all 15 dams was re-evaluated. By lowering the supply contract amount by 10%, it was possible to endure a severe drought.

Keywords

Drought resilience

S-day

Drought response measure evaluation

Future water demand change

최근 발생하는 극한가뭄에 대비하고자 본 연구는 실제 운영에서 수자원 시설물의 가뭄 취약도 및 가뭄대책별 우선순위를 파악할 수 있는 가뭄대응력 지표로 S-day를 제안하였다. 여기서 가뭄대책이란 용수공급 조정, 시설간 연계운영, 비상용량 고려 등이 대표적이며, 각 댐별로 그 구성에 차이가 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 15개 다목적댐 및 용수댐에 대하여 가뭄대응력을 산정하였으며, 그 결과 20년 빈도의 가뭄이 지속될 시 15개 댐 모두 전반적으로 용수공급 조정이라는 가뭄대책을 통해 안정적인 가뭄대응력을 보였다. 하지만 다른 대책에서는 2년 이상 지속되는 다년 가뭄을 대비하지 못하였으며, 횡성댐과 안동·임하댐은 100년 빈도 가뭄 발생 시 대부분의 대책에서 S-day가 1년을 넘기지 못하였다. 특히, 횡성댐, 안동·임하댐, 군위댐, 운문댐, 대청댐, 주암댐은 20년 빈도 가뭄 발생 시, 가뭄대책을 적용하지 않으면 1년 내로 정상적인 용수공급이 불가능할 것으로 나타났다. 이에 본 연구에서는 S-day를 통해 가뭄대책별 최적 공급 용량을 제안하고 대책별 가뭄단계에 따른 가동시기를 변경해 가뭄대응 효과를 평가하였다. 마지막으로 미래 사회·경제적 변동에 따른 수요변화를 반영하고자 현행 공급 계약량에 대해 10%씩 증감하여 전체 15개 댐의 가뭄대응력을 재평가하였다. 그 결과 공급계약량이 10% 감소할 경우, 대부분의 댐에서 용수공급 조정만으로도 심각한 가뭄에 대한 대비가 가능할 것으로 분석되었다.

키워드

가뭄대응력

S-day

가뭄대책 평가

미래 수요변화

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 56
No :1
Pages :11-21
Received Date : 2022-09-16
Revised Date : 2022-10-28
Accepted Date : 2022-10-28
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.1.11

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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