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2016 Vol.49, Issue 4 Preview Page
Development of dam inflow simulation technique coupled with rainfall simulation and rainfall-runoff model

강우모의기법과 강우-유출 모형을 연계한 댐 유입량 자료 생성기법 개발

Tae-Jeong Kima
,
Byung-Jin Soa
,
Min-Suk Ryoub
,
Hyun-Han Kwona*
김 태정a
,
소 병진a
,
유 민석b
,
권 현한a*
aDepartment of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University
bK-water
a전북대학교 토목공학과
b한국수자원공사 댐·유역관리처
*교신저자. *Corresponding Author. 
30 April 2016. pp. 315-325
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Abstract

Generally, a natural river discharge is highly regulated by the hydraulic structures, and the regulated flow is substantially different from natural inflow characteristics for the use of water resources planning. The natural inflow data are necessarily required for hydrologic analysis and water resources planning. This study aimed to develop an integrated model for more reliable simulation of daily dam inflow. First, a piecewise Kernel-Pareto distribution was used for rainfall simulation model, which can more effectively reproduce the low order moments (e.g. mean and median) as well as the extremes. Second, a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme was applied for the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model that is able to quantitatively assess uncertainties associated with model parameters. It was confirmed that the proposed modeling scheme is capable of reproducing the underlying statistical properties of discharge, and can be further used to provide a set of plausible scenarios for water budget analysis in water resources planning.

Keywords
Discharge
Rainfall Simulation
Bayesian
Rainfall-Runoff Model

일반적으로 하천의 유량은 댐과 같은 수공구조물에 의해 조정된 유량으로 수자원계획을 위해서 필요한 자연유량과는 차이가 크다. 수자원계획을 수립함에 있어 자연 유입량 정보는 댐 운영과 수문분석을 위한 필수적인 정보이다. 본 연구에서는 댐 유역 일유입량 모의기법을 위한 통합 모형을 개발하였다. 첫째, 장기 강우-유출 모형의 입력강우자료로 사용하기 위하여 평균 및 중앙값과 같은 통계적 모멘트를 효과적으로 재현하고 극치강우량 재현에 유리한 불연속 Kernel-Pareto 확률분포 기반의 강우모의기법을 통하여 강우모의를 수행하였다. 둘째, SAC-SMA 장기 강우-유출 모형의 매개변수를 Bayesian MCMC 기법을 통하여 최적화하여 산정된 매개변수의 사후분포를 활용하여 댐 유입량 시나리오 도출하였다. 댐 유역을 대상으로 개발된 모형을 평가한 결과 자연유량과 통계적으로 유사한 특성을 가지는 시나리오를 생성할 수 있었으며, 물수지 분석 등과 같은 수자원계획을 위한 시나리오로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

키워드
유량
강우모의
Bayesian
강우-유출 모형
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 49
  • No :4
  • Pages :315-325
  • Received Date : 2016-01-29
  • Revised Date : 2016-02-16
  • Accepted Date : 2016-02-23
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.4.315
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