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2022 Vol.55, Issue 6 Preview Page
Estimation of grid-type precipitation quantile using satellite based re-analysis precipitation data in Korean peninsula

위성 기반 재분석 강수 자료를 이용한 한반도 격자형 확률강수량 산정

Jinwook Leea
,
Changhyun Junb
,
Hyeon-joon Kimc
,
Jongyun Byund
,
Jongjin Baike*
이 진욱a
,
전 창현b
,
김 현준c
,
변 종윤d
,
백 종진e*
aResearch Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea
bAssistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea
cResearch Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea
dMaster’s Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea
eResearch Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Chung-Ang University, Seoul, Korea
a중앙대학교 건설환경플랜트공학과 연구교수
b중앙대학교 건설환경플랜트공학과 조교수
c중앙대학교 건설환경플랜트공학과 연구교수
d앙대학교 건설환경플랜트공학과 석사과정
e중앙대학교 건설환경플랜트공학과 연구교수
*Corresponding Author
30 June 2022. pp. 447-459
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Abstract

This study estimated the grid-type precipitation quantile for the Korean Peninsula using PERSIANN-CCS-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record), a satellite based re-analysis precipitation data. The period considered is a total of 38 years from 1983 to 2020. The spatial resolution of the data is 0.04° and the temporal resolution is 3 hours. For the probability distribution, the Gumbel distribution which is generally used for frequency analysis was used, and the probability weighted moment method was applied to estimate parameters. The duration ranged from 3 hours to 144 hours, and the return period from 2 years to 500 years was considered. The results were compared and reviewed with the estimated precipitation quantile using precipitation data from the Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) weather station. As a result, the parameter estimates of the Gumbel distribution from the PERSIANN-CCS-CDR showed a similar pattern to the results of the ASOS as the duration increased, and the estimates of precipitation quantiles showed a rather large difference when the duration was short. However, when the duration was 18 h or longer, the difference decreased to less than about 20%. In addition, the difference between results of the South and North Korea was examined, it was confirmed that the location parameters among parameters of the Gumbel distribution was markedly different. As the duration increased, the precipitation quantile in North Korea was relatively smaller than those in South Korea, and it was 84% of that of South Korea for a duration of 3 h, and 70-75% of that of South Korea for a duration of 144 h.

Keywords
Satellite based re-analysis precipitation data
Grid-type precipitation quantile
Frequency analysis
Korean peninsula
PERSIANN-CCS-CDR

본 연구에서는 위성 기반 재분석 강수 자료인 PERSIANN-CCS-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record)을 이용하여 한반도에 대한 격자형 확률강수량을 산정하였다. 고려된 기간은 1983년부터 2020년까지 총 38개년이다. 사용된 자료의 공간해상도는 0.04°이며, 시간해상도는 3시간이다. 확률분포로는 빈도해석을 위해 일반적으로 사용되고 있는 Gumbel 분포를 사용하였으며, 매개변수 추정을 위해 확률가중모멘트법을 적용하였다. 지속기간은 3시간부터 144시간까지, 재현기간은 2년부터 500년까지가 고려되었다. 이러한 방식으로 산정된 결과를 지상우량계인 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) 기상관측소의 강수 자료를 활용하여 산정된 확률강수량과 비교·검토하였다. 그 결과, PERSIANN-CCS-CDR 자료로부터 산정된 Gumbel 분포의 매개변수들은 지속기간이 증가함에 따라 ASOS의 결과들과 유사한 양상을 보였으며 이를 토대로 얻어진 확률강수량은 지속기간이 짧은 경우 다소 큰 차이를 보였으나, 지속기간이 18 h 이상인 경우 그 차이는 약 20% 이내로 감소함을 확인하였다. 추가적으로, 남북한 차이를 살펴보았으며 Gumbel 분포 매개변수들 중 위치 매개변수의 차이가 두드러지게 나타남을 확인하였다. 지속기간의 증가에 따른 북한의 확률강수량이 상대적으로 작게 나타났으며, 지속기간 3 h 기준 남한의 84%, 지속기간 144 h 기준 70~75% 수준인 것으로 확인되었다.

키워드
위성 기반 재분석 강수 자료
격자형 확률강수량
빈도해석
한반도
PERSIANN-CCS-CDR
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 55
  • No :6
  • Pages :447-459
  • Received Date : 2022-04-01
  • Revised Date : 2022-05-10
  • Accepted Date : 2022-05-17
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.6.447
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