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2019 Vol.52, Issue 9 Preview Page

Research Article

Generation of runoff ensemble members using the shot noise process based rainfall-runoff model

Shot Noise Process 기반 강우-유출 모형을 이용한 유출 앙상블 멤버 생성

Minseok Kanga
,
Eunsaem Chob
,
Chulsang Yooc*
강 민석a
,
조 은샘b
,
유 철상c*
aPh.D Candidate, School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University
bPh.D Candidate, School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University
cProfessor, School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University
a고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부 박사과정
b고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부 박사과정
c고려대학교 공과대학 건축사회환경공학부 교수
* Corresponding Author
30 September 2019. pp. 603-613
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Abstract

This study proposes a method to generate runoff ensemble members using a rainfall-runoff model based on the shot noise process (hereafter the rainfall-runoff model). The proposed method was applied to generate runoff ensemble members for three drainage basins of Daerim 2, Guro 1 and the Jungdong, whose results were then compared with the observed. The parameters of the rainfall-runoff model were estimated using the empirical formulas like the Kerby, Kraven II and Russel, also the concept of modified rational formula. Gamma and exponential distributions were used to generate random numbers of the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model. Especially, the gamma distribution is found to be useful to generate various random numbers depending on the pre-assigned relationship between mean and standard deviation. Comparison between the generated runoff ensemble members and the observed shows that those runoff ensemble members generated using the gamma distribution with its standard deviation twice of the mean properly cover the observed runoff.

Keywords
Runoff ensemble
Shot noise process
Gamma distribution
Rainfall-runoff model

본 연구에서는 shot noise process 기반 강우-유출 모형(이하 강우-유출 모형)을 이용하여 유출 앙상블 멤버를 생성하는 방법을 제안하였다. 아울러 제안된 방법을 적용하여 대림 2, 구로 1, 중동 빗물펌프장 등 3개 배수유역에 대한 유출 앙상블 멤버를 생성하고, 이를 관측 유출량과 비교해 보았다. 강우-유출 모형의 매개변수는 Kerby 공식, Kraven II 공식, Russel 공식 및 수정합리식의 개념을 이용하여 추정하였다. 강우-유출 모형 매개변수의 난수 발생을 위해서는 감마분포와 지수분포를 이용하였다. 특히, 감마분포의 경우에는 평균과 표준편차의 관계를 어떻게 설정하느냐에 따라 다양한 난수 발생이 가능함을 확인하였다. 생성된 유출 앙상블과 관측 유출량과의 비교 결과, 표준편차가 평균의 두 배인 감마 분포를 이용하여 만든 유출 앙상블이 관측 유출량을 가장 적절히 포괄함을 확인하였다.

키워드
유출 앙상블
shot noise process
감마분포
강우-유출모형
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 52
  • No :9
  • Pages :603-613
  • Received Date : 2019-08-12
  • Revised Date : 2019-08-28
  • Accepted Date : 2019-08-28
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2019.52.9.603
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