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2026 Vol.59, Issue 5 Preview Page
Index-based analysis of changes in extreme events over South Korea under climate change

극한기후지수를 활용한 기후변화에 따른 우리나라 극한사상 변화 분석

Yookyung Jeonga
,
Kyuhyun Byunb*
정 유경a
,
변 규현b*
aIntegrated Master’s-Ph.D. Student, Department of Environmental and Energy Engineering, Incheon National University, Incheon, Korea
bAssistant Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Incheon National University, Incheon, Korea
a인천대학교 환경에너지공학과 석·박사 통합과정
b인천대학교 도시환경공학부 환경공학과 조교수
*Corresponding Author
31 May 2026. pp. 503-517
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Abstract

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events due to climate change affect natural environments and human society, making quantitative assessments essential for climate change adaptation. However, many studies have focused on individual stations or a limited set of extreme events, constraining a comprehensive understanding of long-term spatiotemporal variability. To address this gap, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics and long-term trends of extreme events over South Korea using climate extreme indices. Nine temperature and precipitation indices were derived from high-resolution (1/16°, 6.25 km) and high-quality gridded climate data for 1973-2022. Mean values were compared between historical (1973-1997) and recent (1998-2022) periods. Results show overall increases in annual mean temperature and precipitation. The annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx) and heat wave days (HW) increased, indicating an intensification of heat extremes. In contrast, the annual minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn) increased and cold wave days (CW) decreased, suggesting a weakening of cold extremes. Extreme precipitation indices (Rx1day, Rx5 day, R50mm, and R80mm) increased, indicating intensified heavy precipitation. Increased consecutive dry days (CDD) reveal precipitation polarization, characterized by the coexistence of intensified wet and dry extremes. These results quantify regional variations in climate extremes and provide a scientific basis for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies across various sectors.

Keywords
Extreme events
Climate change
Climate extreme index
Gridded climate data

기후변화로 인한 극한사상의 빈도와 강도 증가는 자연환경과 인간 사회에 심각한 영향을 미치며, 이에 대한 정량적 평가는 기후 위험 관리와 적응 전략 수립을 위해 필수적이다. 하지만, 기존 연구들은 개별 지점이나 제한된 극한사상을 중심으로 수행된 경우가 많아, 장기간에 걸친 다양한 극한사상의 시·공간적 변화 특성을 통합적으로 파악하는 데에는 한계가 있다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 극한기후지수를 활용하여 기후변화에 따른 우리나라 극한사상의 시·공간적 변화 특성과 장기적 변화 경향을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하였다. 구체적으로, 1973-2022년 기간에 대한 고해상도(1/16°, 6.25 km) 및 고품질 격자형 기후자료를 기반으로 기온과 강수 관련 9개의 극한기후지수를 활용하여, 과거 25년(1973-1997)과 최근 25년(1998-2022)의 평균값을 비교하여 극한사상의 변화를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 우리나라 전역에서 연평균 기온과 연평균 강수량이 전반적으로 증가하였다. 기온 관련 극한기후지수 분석에서는 일 최고기온의 연중 최댓값(TXx)과 폭염일수(HW)의 상승으로 폭염이 강화된 반면, 일 최저기온의 연중 최솟값(TNn)의 상승과 한파일수(CW)의 감소로 저온 극한사상은 완화되는 양상을 보였다. 강수 관련 지수(Rx1day, Rx5day, R50mm, R80mm)는 전국적으로 증가하여 극한강수의 빈도와 강도가 강화된 동시에 최대무강수 지속기간(CDD) 역시 대부분 지역에서 증가하여 극한강수의 양극화 현상이 확인되었다. 본 연구 결과는 우리나라 극한사상의 지역별 변화 특성을 정량적으로 제시하며, 다양한 분야에서 기후변화 적응 및 완화 정책 수립을 위한 과학적 근거로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

키워드
극한사상
기후변화
극한기후지수
격자형 기후자료
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 59
  • No :5
  • Pages :503-517
  • Received Date : 2026-01-19
  • Revised Date : 2026-03-25
  • Accepted Date : 2026-03-26
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.5.503
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