Probabilistic prediction of reservoir storage considering the uncertainty of dam inflow

Minsung Kwon; Dong-Hyeok Park; Kyung Soo Jun; Tae-Woong Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.7.607

All Issue

2016 Vol.49, Issue 7 Preview Page Next Page

Probabilistic prediction of reservoir storage considering the uncertainty of dam inflow 댐 유입량의 불확실성을 고려한 저수량의 확률론적 예측

31 July 2016. pp. 607-614

PDF XML

Abstract

The well-timed water management is required to reduce drought damages. It is also necessary to induce residents in drought-affected areas to save water. Information on future storage is important in managing water resources based on the current and future states of drought. This study employed a kernel function to develop a probabilistic model for predicting dam storage considering inflow uncertainty. This study also investigated the application of the proposed probabilistic model during the extreme drought. This model can predict a probability of temporal variation of storage. Moreover, the model can be used to make a long-term plan since it can identify a temporal change of storage and estimate a required reserving volume of water to achieve the target storage.

Keywords

Drought

Probabilistic Prediction

Uncertainty

Water Management

가뭄의 피해를 줄이기 위해서는 시기적절한 용수관리와 지역주민의 절수 유도가 필요하며, 이를 위해서는 가뭄의 현황 및 전망에 대한 정보가 무엇보다 중요하다. 특히 생·공용수를 공급하는 다목적댐의 경우 저수량에 대한 향후 전망은 용수관리를 위한 가장 중요한 정보이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 핵밀도함수를 활용하여 유입량의 불확실성을 고려한 확률론적 저수량 예측 모형을 구축하고, 그 적용성과 활용성을 분석하였다. 확률론적 저수량 예측 모형은 현재의 저수량을 기준으로 시간의 변화에 따른 저수량을 확률적으로 예측할 수 있다. 이를 통해 현재의 가뭄상황에서 향후 저수량의 변화 양상을 파악하여 중장기적인 대응이 가능하고 특정시점의 목표 저수량을 달성하기 위한 용수 비축량을 산정할 수 있어 용수관리에 관한 의사결정을 위한 도구로 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

키워드

가뭄

확률론적 예측

불확실성

용수관리

References

Bowman, A. W., and Azzalini, A. (1997). Applied smoothing techniques for data analysis: The kernel approach with S-Plus illustrations. OUP Oxford.

K-water (2013). Operation manual of dam. K-water.

K-water (2016). White paper on drought. K-water.

Lee, D.-R., Moon, J.-W., Lee, D.-H., and Ahn, J. H. (2006). “Development of water supply capacity index to monitor droughts in a reservoir.” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 199-214.

McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. (1993). “The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.” Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Boston, MA, USA, Vol. 17, No. 22, pp. 179-183.

Palmer, W.C. (1965). Meteorological drought (Vol. 30). Washington, DC, USA: US Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau.

Park, M.J., Shin, H.J., Choi, Y.D., Park, J.Y., and Kim, S.J. (2011) “Development of a hydrological drought index considering water availability.” Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers, Vol. 53, No. 6, pp. 165-170.

Shafer, B.A., and Dezman, L.E. (1982). “Development of a surface water supply index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas.” Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, Fort Collins, CO, Vol. 50, pp. 164-175.

Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F., and Roderick, M.L. (2012) “Little change in global drought over the past 60 years.” Nature, Vol. 491, No. 7424, pp. 435-438.

Wand, M.P., and Jones, M.C. (1995). Kernel smoothing. Chapman & Hall, London.

WMO (2009). Experts agree on a universal drought index to cope with climate risks. WMO Press Release No. 872.

Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 49
No :7
Pages :607-614
Received Date : 2016-04-03
Revised Date : 2016-05-10
Accepted Date : 2016-05-28
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.7.607

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

All Issue