Quantitative impacts of climate change and human activities on the watershed runoff variation of the Geum River basin

Mi Ju Oh; Dongwook Kim; Joo-Heon Lee; Tae-Woong Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.6.381

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2023 Vol.56, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Quantitative impacts of climate change and human activities on the watershed runoff variation of the Geum River basin 기후변화 및 인간 활동이 금강 유역의 중권역 유출량 변동에 미치는 영향의 정량적 평가

30 June 2023. pp. 381-392

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Abstract

Precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration are changing worldwide due to climate change and human activities. Because watershed runoff is an important component of the hydrological cycle, it is important to investigate the changes in watershed runoff for water resources management. This study collected observed data of runoff, precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration in the Geum River basin as well as their synthetic data according to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, investigated the trend of hydro-meteorological variables using the Mann-Kendall test, and quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change and human activities on the watershed runoff using the climate elasticity approach and the Budyko framework. The results indicated that the relative contribution of climate change and human activity to changes in runoff varies from region to region. For example, the watershed with the greatest contribution from climate change and human activity were the Yongdam Dam (#3001) basin and the Daecheong Dam (#3008) basin, respectively. Future climate change showed an increase in precipitation and temperature in both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, resulting in changes in runoff in the Geum River basin from 44.8% to 65.5%, respectively. We concluded that the effect on watershed runoff can be separated into climate change and human activities, which will be important information in establishing sustainable water resource management plans.

Keywords

Climate change

Human activities

Runoff

Budyko analysis

기후변화와 인간 활동으로 강수량, 유출량 및 증발산량 등이 변화되고 있다. 유역 유출량은 수문 순환의 매우 중요한 구성 요소이며, 기후변화와 인간 활동으로 변화되고 있는 유역 유출량에 대한 분석은 수자원 관리에 있어서 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 금강 유역 중권역의 과거 관측자료 및 미래 대표농도경로(RCP) 시나리오에 따른 유출량, 강수량, 기온 및 증발산량 자료에 대해 Mann-Kendall 검정을 이용하여 수문기상학적 변수의 추세를 분석하였고, 기후변화와 인간 활동이 금강 유역의 유출량에 미치는 영향을 기후 탄력성 접근법과 Budyko 프레임워크를 이용하여 정량적으로 평가하였다. 과거의 유출량과 미래 유출량을 분석한 결과, 중권역마다 유출량 변화에 기후변화와 인간 활동이 미치는 상대적인 기여도가 다양하게 나타났다. 예를 들어, 기후변화의 기여도가 가장 큰 중권역은 용담댐(#3001) 유역이었으며, 인간 활동의 기여도가 가장 큰 중권역은 대청댐(#3008) 유역이었다. 미래 기후변화는 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오 모두에서 강수량과 온도의 증가가 나타났다. 이러한 기후 요인의 변화는 금강 유역의 유출량 변화에 44.8%에서 65.5%까지 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 통해 유출량은 기후변화에 의한 영향뿐만 아니라 인간 활동에도 크게 영향을 받고 있으며, 이는 지속적인 수자원 관리 계획을 세우는데 중요한 정보가 될 것이다.

키워드

기후변화

인간 활동

유출량

Budyko 분석

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 56
No :6
Pages :381-392
Received Date : 2023-03-05
Revised Date : 2023-05-05
Accepted Date : 2023-06-07
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.6.381

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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