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2019 Vol.52, Issue 12 Preview Page

Research Article

Statistical frequency analysis of snow depth using mixed distributions

혼합분포함수를 적용한 최심신적설량에 대한 수문통계학적 빈도분석

Kyung Woon Parka
,
Dongwook Kimb
,
Ji Yae Shinc
,
Tae-Woong Kimd*
박 경운a
,
김 동욱b
,
신 지예c
,
김 태웅d*
aPh.D. Student, Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University
bM.S. Student, Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University
cPostdoctoral Fellow, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University
dProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University
a한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 박사과정
b한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 석사과정
c한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과 박사후연구원
d한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과 교수
* Corresponding Author
31 December 2019. pp. 1001-1009
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Abstract

Due to recent increasing heavy snow in Korea, the damage caused by heavy snow is also increasing. In Korea, there are many efforts including establishing disaster prevention measures to reduce the damage throughout the country, but it is difficult to establish the design criteria due to the characteristics of heavy snow. In this study, snowfall frequency analysis was performed to estimate design snow depths using observed snow depth data at Jinju, Changwon and Hapcheon stations. The conventional frequency analysis is sometime limted to apply to the snow depth data containing zero values which produce unrealistc estimates of distributon parameters. To overcome this problem, this study employed mixed distributions based on Lognormal, Generalized Pareto (GP), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gamma, Gumbel and Weibull distribution. The results show that the mixed distributions produced smaller design snow depths than single distributions, which indicated that the mixed distributions are applicable and practical to estimate design snow depths.

Keywords
Frequency analysis
Mixed distribution
Maximum snowfall depth
Return period

최근 우리나라에서 폭설이 증가하고 있으며, 이로 인한 피해액 또한 증가하고 있다. 우리나라는 전국적으로 폭설로 인한 피해를 줄이기 위해 내설 설계기준 마련 등의 노력을 하고 있으나, 강설 자료의 특성으로 기준 설정에 어려움이 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 남부 지역에 있는 진주, 창원, 합천 지점의 적설량에 대한 수문통계학적 빈도분석을 수행하여 최심신적설량에 대한 설계수문량을 정량적으로 산정하였다. 자료의 특성상 연도별 측정값이 ‘0’인 경우가 존재하여 기존의 빈도분석 방법을 적용할 경우 매개변수의 추정이 불가능한 상황도 발생한다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위하여 혼합분포함수를 이용하였고, 분포모형으로는 대수정규, 일반화 파레토, 일반화 극치, 감마, 검벨, 와이블 분포를 적용하였다. 적용 결과, 단일분포함수를 적용할 때 보다 혼합분포함수를 적용할 때 확률적설심이 더 작게 산정되었으며, 전체적으로 관측값이 간헐적으로 나타나는 지점에서 혼합분포함수의 적용성이 우수한 것으로 판단된다.

키워드
빈도분석
혼합분포함수
최심신적설
재현기간
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 52
  • No :12
  • Pages :1001-1009
  • Received Date : 2019-10-02
  • Revised Date : 2019-11-21
  • Accepted Date : 2019-11-21
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2019.52.12.1001
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