Development of a hybrid water-energy-food nexus system for Chungcheongnam-do using a combined long short-term memory and multi-output regression model

Ji Eun Kim; Min Ji Kim; Tae-Woong Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.6.519

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2026 Vol.59, Issue 6 Next Page

Development of a hybrid water-energy-food nexus system for Chungcheongnam-do using a combined long short-term memory and multi-output regression model 장단기 메모리와 다중 출력 회귀 결합 모형 기반의 충청남도 복합 물-에너지-식량 넥서스 시스템 개발

30 June 2026. pp. 519-531

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Abstract

As climate change and rapid industrialization exacerbate resource scarcity, the importance of an integrated management approach that links and manages water, energy, and food resources has become increasingly critical. The existing fragmented management methods are ill-equipped to address the intricate interactions between resources, making it challenging to respond effectively to complex crises. To quantitatively assess resource interactions in the Chungcheongnam-do, this study developed a hybrid water-energy-food (WEF) nexus system that combines long short-term memory (LSTM) and multi- output regression (MOR). The system employed various input and output factors spanning 2014 to 2022, including precipitation, reservoir storage, water supply and usage, energy generation and consumption, and agricultural and livestock production and consumption, along with stress indices calculated from sectoral supply and production. The results indicated that the water and food sectors exhibited the most dominant interaction within the Chungcheongnam-do WEF nexus system. Furthermore, it was found that precipitation significantly influenced not only crop production, but also energy generation. Especially, the water stress index accounted for over 45% of the total nexus stress, identifying it as the critical determinant of system vulnerability in the region. The simulation of historical resource supply and demand fluctuations by sector using LSTM verified the model’s reproducibility, yielding Ra2 values ranging from 0.49 to 0.78 and KGE values ranging from 0.47 to 0.89. In contrast, the hybrid nexus system combining LSTM-MOR yielded higher Ra2 and KGE than the standalone LSTM model. Consequently, the LSTM-MOR hybrid model developed in this study enables comprehensive nexus evaluations through sensitivity analysis for climate change scenarios, making it an essential asset for informed resource management and policy-making.

Keywords

Water-Energy-Food nexus

Integrated resources management

Long short-term memory

Multi-output regression model

기후변화와 산업 발전으로 인해 자원 고갈 위기가 커지면서, 물, 에너지, 식량 자원을 연계하여 통합적으로 관리하는 것이 중요해지고 있다. 기존의 개별 관리 방식으로는 복잡한 상호작용을 반영하지 못해, 복합적인 자원 위기에 효과적으로 대응하기 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 충청남도 지역을 대상으로 자원 간의 상호작용을 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여, 장단기 메모리(LSTM)와 다중 출력 회귀(MOR) 모형을 결합한 복합 물-에너지-식량(WEF) 넥서스 시스템을 구축하였다. 2014년∼2022년 기간의 강수량, 저수량, 용수 생산량 및 이용량, 에너지 발전 소비량, 농축산 생산·소비량과 부문별 공급 및 생산량으로부터 산정된 스트레스 지수를 시스템의 입력 및 출력 인자로 활용하였다. 그 결과, 충청남도 WEF 넥서스 시스템에서는 물과 식량 부문이 가장 지배적인 상호작용을 보였으며, 강수량은 식량작물 생산뿐만 아니라 에너지 생산에도 크게 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 물 스트레스가 전체의 45% 이상을 차지하며, 충청남도의 시스템 취약성을 결정하는 핵심 인자로 확인되었다. LSTM을 활용하여 과거 기간의 부문별 자원의 수요량 및 공급량 변동성을 모의하고 모형의 재현성을 검증한 결과, Ra2는 0.49∼0.78, KGE는 0.47∼0.89의 범위로 나타났다. 반면, LSTM과 MOR 모형이 결합된 복합 넥서스 시스템의 Ra2와 KGE는 LSTM만 적용한 결과에 비해 높게 나타났다. 따라서 본 연구에서 개발한 LSTM-MOR 기반의 WEF 넥서스 시스템은 기후변화 시나리오별 민감도 분석을 통해 지역 단위의 넥서스 평가를 가능케 하며, 향후 자원 관리 및 정책 결정을 지원하는 핵심적인 도구로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

키워드

물-에너지-식량 넥서스

통합 자원 관리

장단기 메모리

다중출력회귀 모형

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 59
No :6
Pages :519-531
Received Date : 2026-12-31
Revised Date : 2026-02-07
Accepted Date : 2026-03-11
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.6.519

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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