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2026 Vol.59, Issue 10 Preview Page
Observation-based spatial distribution of extreme precipitation scaling rates and peak temperatures

관측 기반 극한 강수 스케일링 지수의 공간 분포 특성과 임계온도 분석

Narae Kanga*
,
Sujong Leeb
,
Seokhwan Hwangc
,
Jungsoo Yoond
,
Heejun Parke
강 나래a*
,
이 수종b
,
황 석환c
,
윤 정수d
,
박 희준e
aSenior Researcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
bPost-Doc., Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
cResearch Fellow, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
dSenior Researcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
ePost-Master, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
a한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 수석연구원
b한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 박사후연구원
c한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 연구위원
d한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 수석연구원
e한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 석사후연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 October 2026. pp. 1259-1273
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Abstract

This study quantitatively evaluated apparent precipitation scaling rates across rainfall durations and event types using long-term observation records from 58 Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) stations operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and analyzed their station-scale variability and spatial distribution characteristics. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation, a fundamental law of atmospheric thermodynamics, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by approximately 7% per 1°C increase in temperature. The analysis revealed that for short-duration rainfall events, the mean scaling rates based on both air temperature and dew point temperature substantially exceeded the C-C rate (~7%/°C), exhibiting super C-C scaling behavior. Medium-duration convective events also showed relatively high mean scaling rates. Conversely, long-duration stratiform events exhibited sub C-C scaling levels. Furthermore, spatial statistical analyses, including the pattern correlation coefficient (PCC), were conducted to quantitatively assess the spatial pattern consistency across the Korean Peninsula, and the peak temperatures at which the scaling relationship ceases to operate were identified. Combined with reliable climate change projections, the findings of this study are expected to contribute to more reasonable predictions and assessments of future extreme precipitation behaviors for hydro-meteorological risk evaluation.

Keywords
Extreme precipitation
Clausius-Clapeyron relationship
Temperature-Precipitation scaling
Apparent scaling rate

본 연구는 기상청 관할 전국 58개 종관기상관측소(ASOS)의 장기 관측 자료를 바탕으로 강우 지속시간 및 사상별 실측 스케일링(Apparent Scaling rate) 지수를 정량적으로 산정하고 지점별 변동성 및 공간 분포 특성을 분석하였다. Clausius-Clapeyron(C-C) 관계에 따르면 대기 온도가 1℃ 상승함에 따라 대기가 보유할 수 있는 포화수증기량은 약 7%씩 증가하는 것으로 알려져 있다. 분석 결과, 단시간 강수 사상에서는 기온과 이슬점 온도 기준 스케일링 지수 평균은 CC 이론선(약 7%/℃)을 크게 상회하는 Super CC scaling 반응을 나타냈으며, 중시간 사상에서도 기온과 이슬점 온도 기준 또한 높은 평균 증가율을 보였다. 반면 장시간 사상에서는 Sub CC scaling 수준을 형성하였다. 아울러 공간 패턴 상관계수(PCC) 등 공간 통계 분석을 통해 한반도 전체 면적에 대한 공간적 패턴 유사성을 정량적으로 평가하였으며, 스케일링 관계가 한계에 도달하는 기온 인계점(Peak Temperature)을 함께 산정하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 신뢰도 높은 기온 및 전망 자료와 결합하여 미래 극한 강수의 실제 변화 양상을 보다 합리적으로 예측하고 방재 기준을 검토하는데 기여할 수 있을 것이다.

키워드
극한 강수
Clausius-Clapeyron
기온 기반 강수 스케일링
실측 스케일링 지수
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 59
  • No :10
  • Pages :1259-1273
  • Received Date : 2026-07-22
  • Revised Date : 2026-08-18
  • Accepted Date : 2026-08-20
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.10.1259
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