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2024 Vol.57, Issue 4

Research Article

Assessment of the impact of climate variability on runoff change of middle-sized watersheds in Korea using Budyko hypothesis-based equation

Budyko 가설 기반 기후 탄력성을 고려한 기후변동이 우리나라 중권역 유출량 변화에 미치는 영향 평가

Mi Ju Oha
,
Hong Daheeb
,
Kyung Jin Limc
,
Kwon Hyun-Hand
,
Tae-Woong Kime*
오 미주a
,
홍 다희b
,
임 경진c
,
권 현한d
,
김 태웅e*
aMaster Student, Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
bMaster Student, Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
cPh.D. Student, Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
dProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea
eProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea
a한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 석사과정
b한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 석사과정
c한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 박사과정
d세종대학교 건설환경공학과 교수
e한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 April 2024. pp. 237-248
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Abstract

Watershed runoff that is an important component of the hydrological processes has been significantly altered by climate variability and human activities in many watersheds around the world. It is important to investigate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change for water resource management. In this study, using watershed runoff data for 109 middle-sized watersheds in Korea, the impacts of climate variability and human activities on watershed runoff change were quantitatively evaluated. Using the Pittitt test, the analysis period was divided into two sub-periods, and the impacts of climate variability and human activities on the watershed runoff change were quantified using the Budyko hypothesis-based climate elasticity method. The overall results indicated that the relative contribution of climate variability and human activities to the watershed runoff change varied by middle-sized watersheds, and the dominant factors on the watershed runoff change were identified for each watershed among climate variability and human activities. The results of this study enable us to predict the watershed runoff change considering climate variability and watershed development plans, which provides useful information for establishing a water resource management plan to reduce the risk of hydrological disasters such as drought or flood.

Keywords
Climate variability
Human activities
Budyko hypothesis
Pettitt test

수문 순환의 중요한 구성 요소인 유역 유출량은 기후변동과 인간 활동의 영향으로 전 세계 많은 유역에서 크게 변화되고 있다. 기후변동과 인간 활동으로 변화되고 있는 유역 유출량에 대한 분석은 수자원 관리에 있어서 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 5개 권역의 109개 중권역의 유출량 자료를 대상으로 기후변동과 인간 활동이 유역 유출량에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 유역 유출량 자료에 대하여 Pettitt 검정을 수행하여 분석 기간을 나누었으며, Budyko 기반 기후 탄력성 방법을 이용하여 기후변동과 인간 활동이 유역 유출량의 변화에 미치는 영향을 구분하였다. 본 연구 결과, 중권역마다 유역 유출량 변화에 기후변동과 인간 활동이 미치는 상대적인 기여도가 다양하게 나타났으며, 중권역별로 유역 유출량의 변화에 지배적인 영향을 주는 요인이 무엇인지 파악하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 기후변동과 유역 개발 계획에 따른 유역 유출량 변화를 예측할 수 있도록 하며, 이는 가뭄이나 홍수 등 수문 재해의 위험을 줄이기 위한 수자원 관리 계획을 수립하는데 중요한 정보가 될 것이다.

키워드
유출량
기후변동
인간 활동
Budyko 가설
Pettitt 검정
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 57
  • No :4
  • Pages :237-248
  • Received Date : 2023-12-22
  • Revised Date : 2024-03-21
  • Accepted Date : 2024-03-22
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2024.57.4.237
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