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2020 Vol.53, Issue 9 Preview Page

Research Article

Development and assessment of framework for selecting multi-GCMs considering Asia monsoon characteristics

아시아 몬순특성을 고려한 다중 GCMs 선정방법 개발 및 평가

Jeong-Bae Kima
,
Jin-Hoon Kimb
,
Deg-Hyo Baec*
김 정배a
,
김 진훈b
,
배 덕효c*
aPostdoctoral researcher, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University
bSenior manager, Hangang Hydro Power Site, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., LTD
cProfessor, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University
a세종대학교 건설환경공학과 박사후연구원
b한국수력원자력(주) 한강수력본부 차장
c세종대학교 건설환경공학과 교수
* Corresponding Author
30 September 2020. pp. 647-660
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Abstract

The objectives of this study are to develop a framework for selecting multi-GCMs considering Asia monsoon characteristics and assess it’s applicability. 12 climate variables related to monsoon climates are selected for GCM selection. The framework for selecting multi-GCMs includes the evaluation matrix of GCM performance based on their capability to simulate historical climate features. The climatological patterns of 12 variables derived from individual GCM over the summer monsoon season during the past period (1976-2005) and they are compared against observations to evaluate GCM performance. For objective evaluation, a rigorous scoring rule is implemented by comparing the GCM performance based on the results of statistics between historical simulation derived from individual GCM and observations. Finally, appropriate 5 GCMs (NorESM1-M, bcc-csm1-m, CNRM-CM5, CMCC-CMS, and CanESM2) are selected in consideration of the ranking of GCM and precipitation performance of each GCM. The selected 5 GCMs are compared with the historical observations in terms of monsoon season and monthly mean to validate their applicability. The 5 GCMs well capture the observational climate characteristics of Asia for the 12 climate variables also they reduce the bias between the entire GCM simulations and the observational data. This study demonstrates that it is necessary to consider various climate variables for GCM selection and, the method introduced in this study can be used to select more reliable climate change scenarios for climate change assessment in the Asia region.

Keywords
Multi-GCM selection
Asia monsoon characteristics
GCM evaluation

본 연구에서는 아시아 몬순특성을 고려한 전지구모형(General Circulation model, GCM) 선정방법을 개발하고 방법의 적정성을 평가하였다. 몬순기후와 연관된 12개의 기후변수를 선정하였으며, GCM의 과거 기후재현성을 기준으로 모의성능 평가 매트릭스 및 평가체계를 구성하였다. 19개 GCM으로부터 아시아 몬순지역 및 과거(1976 ~ 2005년) 몬순기간에 대한 12개 기후변수를 관측자료와 비교하여 GCM의 기후모의 성능을 평가하였다. GCM의 평가순위 및 강수량 모의성능을 고려하여 적정 5개 GCM (NorESM1-M, bcc-csm1-1-m, CNRM-CM5, CMCC-CMS, CanESM2)을 선정하였다. 과거 몬순계절 및 월 평균 기후에 대하여 선정된 GCM의 기후재현성을 검증하였다. 선정된 5개 GCM은 12개 기후변수에 대한 아시아 지역의 관측 기후특성을 잘 재현하였으며, 전체 GCM을 사용하는 경우에 비해 모의값과 관측값 간의 오차를 줄일 수 있는 것으로 확인되었다.

키워드
다중 GCM 선정
아시아 몬순특성
GCM 평가
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 53
  • No :9
  • Pages :647-660
  • Received Date : 2020-06-12
  • Revised Date : 2020-07-19
  • Accepted Date : 2020-07-19
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2020.53.9.647
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