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2024 Vol.57, Issue 1 Preview Page

Research Article

Drought risk outlook using scenario planning and drought management according to drought risk levels in Korea

시나리오 플래닝을 적용한 한국의 가뭄 위험도 전망 및 가뭄 위험 단계에 따른 가뭄관리 방안

Ji Eun Kima
,
Min Ji Kimb
,
Seok-Woo Kimc
,
Tae-Woong Kimd*
김 지은a
,
김 민지b
,
김 석우c
,
김 태웅d*
aResearcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
bPh.D. Student, Department of Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
cPh.D. Student, Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
dProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea
a한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 연구원
b한양대학교 대학원 스마트시티공학과 박사과정
c한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 박사과정
d한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 January 2024. pp. 45-58
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Abstract

Drought risk is expected to increase as the frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts increase due to climate change. Drought risk is related to not only hydro-meteorological factors, but also water supply and demand. Recently, along with climate change, socio-economic factors have also been recognized to increase drought risk. Therefore, it is necessary to outlook the drought risk considering various conditions for coping with future extreme droughts in a timely manner. In addition, considering various drought scenarios help reduce the uncertainty in future drought outlook. In this study, drought scenarios considering climate change scenarios, population, and water demand were created to outlook drought risk for 160 administrative districts in Korea, then new levels of drought risk were assigned based on the results of drought risk outlook to suggest drought management measures. The results showed that the drought risk will increase in the future in 2020, 2025, and 2030, compared to past. Especially the drought risk is likely twice as high in 2030 under the baseline and high scenarios. Applying the drought outlook results from this study to the new methodology for setting the risk levels shows that most regions are in Response (V) in 2020 and 2030 for baseline and high scenarios.

Keywords
Drought risk
Drought outlook
Scenario planning
Drought management
Risk level

기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 빈도, 심도 및 지속기간 등이 증가함에 따라 가뭄 위험도가 높아질 것으로 전망되고 있다. 가뭄 위험도는 수문기상학적 요인뿐만 아니라 용수의 공급 및 수요와 관련 있다. 최근에는 기후변화와 함께 사회경제적인 요인도 가뭄 위험도를 높이는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 따라서 미래에 발생가능한 심각한 가뭄에 적절히 대응하기 위하여 다양한 조건에서의 가뭄 위험도를 전망할 필요가 있다. 또한, 다양한 시나리오를 고려하는 것은 미래의 가뭄 위험도 전망이 가지는 불확실성을 줄이는데 도움이 될 것이다. 본 연구에서는 한국의 160개 시군구에 대한 기후변화 시나리오와 인구 및 용수 수요량 등을 고려하여 가뭄 시나리오를 작성하고 이에 따른 가뭄 위험도를 전망하였으며, 가뭄 위험도 전망 결과를 토대로 가뭄 위험 단계를 재설정하였다. 그 결과 한국의 가뭄 위험도는 과거에 비해 2020, 2025 및 2030년에서 모두 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 기준 및 고위 시나리오에 따르면 2030년에는 가뭄 위험도가 과거보다 약 2배 정도 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 산정된 가뭄 전망 결과를 새로운 가뭄 위험 단계에 적용한 결과, 기준 및 고위 시나리오에서는 2020년 및 2030년에 한국 대부분의 지역에서 대응(V) 단계로 나타났다.

키워드
가뭄 위험도
가뭄 전망
시나리오 플래닝
가뭄 관리
위험도 단계
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 57
  • No :1
  • Pages :45-58
  • Received Date : 2023-08-10
  • Revised Date : 2023-12-24
  • Accepted Date : 2024-01-02
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2024.57.1.45
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