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2025 Vol.58, Issue 4 Preview Page

Research Article / 우수학생논문상

Exploring impact factors of domestic water demand in Chungcheong region using PLS-SEM and Bayesian networks

PLS-SEM과 베이지안 네트워크를 활용한 충청권역 생활용수 수요량 영향인자 분석

Jiyoung Kima
,
Min Ji Kimb
,
Taesik Kimc
,
Tae-Woong Kimd*
김 지영a
,
김 민지b
,
김 태식c
,
김 태웅d*
aDoctoral Student, Department of Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
bDoctoral Student, Department of Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
cDoctoral Student, Department of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
dProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea
a한양대학교 대학원 스마트시티공학과 박사과정
b한양대학교 대학원 스마트시티공학과 박사과정
c한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 박사과정
d한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 April 2025. pp. 301-311
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Abstract

Because domestic water demand is expected to change due to climate change, it is necessary to establish a regional customized water management strategy considering changes of domestic water demand. This study quantitatively evaluated the effects of social, economic and climatic factors on domestic water demand in the Chungcheong region using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and Bayesian network-based sensitivity analysis. The results show that economic factors, with an effect size of 0.324, have the most significant effect on water demand, particularly in areas with large industrial complexes. Social factors also demonstrated a moderate effect of 0.173, while climatic factors showed a relatively limited effect of 0.064. This study provides a basis for incorporating social, economic and climatic factors into the estimation of domestic water demand in the Chungcheong region, which can contribute to the development of region-specific water management plans. It can be also useful to design efficient domestic water management policies in response to climate change as well as social and economic structural changes.

Keywords
Domestic water
Impact factors
Partial least squares structural equation
Bayesian network

기후변화에 따라 생활용수의 수요 변화가 예상되며, 이를 예측하고 반영하여 지역 맞춤형 물 관리 전략을 수립할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 충청권역을 대상으로 부분최소제곱 구조방정식(Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling, PLS-SEM)과 베이지안 네트워크 기반 민감도 분석을 결합하여 사회/경제/기상학적 인자가 생활용수 수요량에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 분석 결과, 경제적 인자가 생활용수 수요에 가장 큰 영향을 미치며, 그 효과 크기는 0.324로 평가되었다. 특히 대규모 공업단지가 위치한 지역에서 경제 발전에 따른 생활용수 사용량 증가가 두드러졌다. 사회적 인자 역시 0.173의 중간 효과를 보이며 생활용수 수요에 유의미한 영향을 미쳤다. 반면, 기상학적 인자는 0.064로 상대적으로 낮은 효과를 보여 생활용수 수요에 미치는 영향이 제한적인 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 충청권역의 생활용수 수요량 산정에 사회·경제·기상학적 인자를 반영할 수 있는 근거를 제공하며, 이를 바탕으로 지역 맞춤형 물관리 계획 수립에 기여할 수 있다. 또한, 기후변화와 사회·경제 구조 변화에 대응한 효율적인 생활용수 관리 정책을 설계하는 데 활용될 수 있다.

키워드
생활용수
영향인자
부분최소제곱 구조방정식
베이지안 네트워크
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 58
  • No :4
  • Pages :301-311
  • Received Date : 2024-10-13
  • Revised Date : 2025-01-27
  • Accepted Date : 2025-02-04
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.4.301
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