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2025 Vol.58, Issue 4

Research Article

A univariate Climate Response Function approach for evaluating structural adaptive strategies in the Dongjin River Basin

단변량 기후반응함수를 이용한 동진강유역의 구조적 기후적응 전략 평가

Daeha Kima
,
Si Jung Choib*
김 대하a
,
최 시중b*
aAssociate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju, Korea
bSenior Researcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
a전북대학교 토목환경자원에너지공학부 부교수
b한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 수석연구원
*Corresponding Author
30 April 2025. pp. 287-299
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

Global warming and shifting precipitation patterns are intensifying water scarcity worldwide, exposing the limits of current water infrastructure. This study applies a univariate Climate Response Function (CRF) to quantify how climate change affects water supply reliability in a large-scale network linking the Seomjin, Yeongsan, and Dongjin River Basins. It also examines how structural strategies - such as upsizing small reservoirs and inter-basin water transfers - may mitigate reliability declines, using CRFs of the wetness index (the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration). After simulating natural streamflow with the GR6J model for 31 basins and optimizing water allocation, the relationship between water supply reliability and climate stress was captured by the univariate CRF, and future reliability was projected using CMIP6 climate scenarios. Results show an exponential decline in reliability for the Dongjin River Basin below a wetness index of 1.2 under current management. Even with expanded reservoirs and inter-basin transfers, the CRF did not shift significantly, and minimal shortages were observed under 1991-2020 conditions. Although 2021-2050 projections vary, 2051 -2080 forecasts indicate a higher probability of drying, suggesting potential reliability losses. By employing a univariate CRF, this study provides a clear assessment of climate vulnerabilities and highlights the importance of maintaining existing reservoirs and transfer networks to ensure future water supply security.

Keywords
Climate adaptation
Univariate Climate Response Function
Wetness index
Structural strategy

온난화와 강수 패턴 변동성으로 전 세계 물 부족 문제가 가속화되며, 기존 수자원 인프라의 한계가 드러나고 있다. 본 연구는 단변량 Climate Response Function (CRF)를 적용하여, 섬진강-영산강-동진강이 연결된 대규모 물공급 네트워크에서 기후변화가 이수안전도에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 중소규모 저수지 확충과 유역변경식 공급망 등 구조적 적응전략의 효과를 확인하기 위해, 습윤지수(평균강수량/평균잠재증발산량)를 기후 스트레스 지표로 삼고, GR6J와 물배분 최적화 모형을 통해 31개 중권역의 자연유출과 이수안전도를 추정하였다. 그 결과 동진강유역에서 습윤지수가 1.2 이하로 감소할 때 이수안전도가 급격히 하락했으며, 중소규모 저수지와 유역변경식 공급이 이를 완화하는 핵심 요인으로 나타났다. 그러나 저수지와 도수로 용량을 늘려도 이수안전도 CRF의 변화 폭은 크지 않았으며, 1991-2020 기후조건에서는 물부족이 크게 발생하지 않았다. CMIP6 기반 2021-2050 습윤지수 전망은 증가·감소가 혼재하나, 2051-2080에는 건조화 가능성이 커 이수안전도 저하가 우려된다. 본 연구는 단변량 CRF을 이용할 경우 복잡한 물공급 시스템에서 기후 취약성을 편의성 높게 진단할 수 있음을 제시하며, 향후 이수안전도 확보를 위해서 중소규모 저수지 및 유역변경식 공급망의 유지·운영이 중요함을 강조한다.

키워드
기후적응
단변량 Climate Response Function
습윤지수
구조적 전략
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 58
  • No :4
  • Pages :287-299
  • Received Date : 2025-01-02
  • Revised Date : 2025-01-24
  • Accepted Date : 2025-02-04
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.4.287
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