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2025 Vol.58, Issue 7 Preview Page

Research Article

Analysis of changes in probable rainfall for annual maximum and annual exceedance series based on rainfall temporal resolution

강우 시간해상도에 따른 연최대치, 연초과치 계열 확률강우량 변화 분석

Seokhyeon Kima
,
Narae Kangb
,
Jungsoo Yoonc
,
Seokhwan Hwangd*
김 석현a
,
강 나래b
,
윤 정수c
,
황 석환d*
aPost Doc., Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
bSenior Researcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
cSenior Researcher, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
dResearcher Follower, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
a한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 박사후연구원
b한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 수석연구원
c한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 수석연구원
d한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 연구위원
*Corresponding Author
31 July 2025. pp. 569-579
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Abstract

This study aimed to analyze changes in probable rainfall for annual maximum and annual exceedance series based on the temporal resolution of rainfall data. To achieve this, minute-based and hour-based rainfall data were collected for six locations, and annual maximum and annual exceedance series were constructed to estimate probable rainfall. In probable rainfall estimation, changes due to temporal resolution are generally addressed by considering the differences between fixed time and arbitrary time. The comparison results from the hydrological data series constructed in this study showed that for both annual exceedance and annual maximum series, the differences decreased as the duration increased, exhibiting trends similar to the fixed time-to-arbitrary time conversion factors. However, in certain locations or durations, the results based on minute-level data were unexpectedly smaller. Additionally, differences appeared within the same location depending on the series construction method. This phenomenon occurred not only due to changes in the mean but also changes in the distribution and standard deviation caused by variations in rainfall events. Even when the mean increases, the results at the same frequency can be lower if the standard deviation decreases. Since changes in the standard deviation have a larger impact on probable rainfall estimation than changes in the mean, this should be carefully considered when utilizing minute-based rainfall data.

Keywords
Probable rainfall
Temporal resolution
Annual maximum series
Annual exceedance series

본 연구는 강우 자료의 시간해상도에 따른 연최대치, 연초과치 계열의 확률강우량 변화를 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 6개 지점에 대하여 분단위, 시간단위 강우량을 수집하였으며 연최대치 계열과 연초과치 계열을 구축하여 확률강우량 산정을 수행하였다. 확률강우량 산정에서 시간해상도에 따른 변화는 일반적으로 고정시간-임의시간에 따른 차이를 고려한다. 본 연구에서 수문자료 계열 구축 결과를 통해 비교한 결과도, 연초과치, 연최대치 모두 지속시간이 증가할수록 차이가 감소하였으며, 이는 고정시간-임의시간 환산계수와 유사한 경향을 나타냈다. 하지만, 확률강우량 산정 시 일부 지점 혹은 지속시간에서 오히려 분단위 자료를 통한 산정 결과가 더 작게 나타났으며, 동일 지점에서도 계열 구축 방법별로 상이하게 나타났다. 이는 단순 평균의 변화뿐만 아니라, 강우사상별 변화에 따른 분포 및 표준편차에 변화가 나타났기 때문이다. 평균이 증가하더라도, 표준편차가 감소할 경우 동일 빈도에서 산정 결과가 낮게 나타나게 된다. 표준편차의 변화는 확률강우량 산정 시 평균의 변화보다 산정 결과에 더 큰 차이를 나타나기 때문에 이는 추후 분단위 강우자료를 활용할 때 추가적으로 고려해야 할 것이다.

키워드
확률강우량
시간해상도
연최대치계열
연초과치계열
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 58
  • No :7
  • Pages :569-579
  • Received Date : 2024-12-18
  • Revised Date : 2025-04-18
  • Accepted Date : 2025-05-08
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.7.569
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