A preliminary study on the determination of drought stages at the local level

Jongso Lee; Daeun Jeon; Hyeoncheol Yoon; Jonghun Kam; Sangeun Lee

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.12.929

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2023 Vol.56, Issue 12 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

A preliminary study on the determination of drought stages at the local level 지역 단위 가뭄단계 판단규칙 개발에 관한 연구

31 December 2023. pp. 929-937

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Abstract

This study aims to develop rules for the Determination of Drought Stages at the Local Level based on the drought cases in Gwangju and Jeollanam-do in 2022-2023. Among the eight drought indicators provided, six indicators (Agricultural drought stage (for paddy), Residential & industrial drought stage, SPI-12, Relative agricultural water storage, Residential water consumption change (for domestic use), Residential water consumption change (for non-domestic use) were confirmed to have statistical correlations with the perceptions of local government officials and experts. Additionally, this drought indicator was applied to a decision tree algorithm to develop rules for determining the severity of drought. Although it presented results similar to those of the existing method presented in previous studies, it showed a significant comparative advantage in explaining the temporal and spatial patterns of drought in the Gwangju and Jeollanam-do.

Keywords

Drought stage

Drought warning

Decision thee algorithms

Local level

본 연구는 2022-2023 광주･전남지역 가뭄 사례를 바탕으로 지역 단위에서 가뭄의 심각성을 토대로 가뭄단계를 판단하는 규칙을 개발하기 위해 실시되었다. 전국의 시･군 단위로 발표되는 8가지 가뭄지표 중에서 농업용수(논) 가뭄단계, 생･공용수 가뭄단계, SPI-12, 농업용 저수지 저수율, 예년 대비 가정용수 사용량 변화율, 예년 대비 비가정용수 사용량 변화율 등의 6가지 지표는 담당자･전문가들의 인식과 통계적 상관성을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 이 가뭄지표를 의사결정트리 알고리즘에 적용하여 가뭄의 심각성을 판단하기 위한 규칙을 도출하였는데, 선행연구에서 제안한 기존의 방법과 유사한 결과를 제시하나, 광주･전남지역 가뭄에서 확인된 시･공간적인 패턴을 설명하는데 있어서 상당한 비교우위를 보였다.

키워드

가뭄단계

가뭄예‧경보

의사결정트리 알고리즘

지역 단위

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 56
No :12
Pages :929-937
Received Date : 2023-10-24
Revised Date : 2023-11-28
Accepted Date : 2023-11-29
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.12.929

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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