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2023 Vol.56, Issue 12 Preview Page

Research Article

Developing a hydrological model for evaluating the future flood risks in rural areas

농촌지역 미래 홍수 위험도 평가를 위한 수문 모델 개발

Qudus Adeyia
,
Mirza Junaid Ahmadb
,
Bashir Adeloduncd
,
Golden Odeye
,
Adisa Hammed Akinsojif
,
Rahmon Abiodun Salaug
,
Kyung Sook Choih*
쿠두스 아데이a
,
미르자 주네이드 아흐메드b
,
바실 아델러둔cd
,
오데이 골든e
,
아디사 하메드 아킨소지f
,
라흐몬 아비오던 살라우g
,
최 경숙h*
aPh.D Combined Degree Student, Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
bPost-doctoral Researcher, Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
cPost-doctoral Researcher, Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
dLecturer, Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria
ePh. D Candidate, Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
fPh. D Student, Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
gPh. D Student, Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
hProfessor, Department of Agricultural Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
a경북대학교 농업토목공학과 석박사통합과정
b경북대학교 농업토목공학과 박사후연구원
c경북대학교 농업토목공학과 박사후연구원
d나이지리아 일로린대학, 농업생물시스템공학과, 전임강사
e경북대학교 농업토목공학과 박사수료
f경북대학교 농업토목공학과 박사과정
g경북대학교 농업토목공학과 박사과정
h경북대학교 농업토목공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2023. pp. 955-967
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Abstract

Climate change is expected to amplify the future flooding risks in rural areas which could have devastating implications for the sustainability of the agricultural sector and food security in South Korea. In this study, spatially disaggregated and statistically bias-corrected outputs from three global circulation models (GCMs) archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and 6) were used to project the future climate by 2100 under medium and extreme scenarios. A hydrological model was developed to simulate the flood phenomena at the Shindae experimental site located in the Chungcheongbuk Province, South Korea. Hourly rainfall, inundation depth, and discharge data collected during the two extreme events that occurred in 2021 and 2022 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrological model. Probability analysis of extreme rainfall data suggested a higher likelihood of intense and unprecedented extreme rainfall events, which would be particularly notable during 2051-2100. Consequently, the flooded area under an inundation depth of >700 mm increased by 13-36%, 54-74%, and 71-90% during 2015-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, respectively. Severe flooding probability was notably higher under extreme CMIP6 scenarios than under their CMIP5 counterparts.

Keywords
Extreme rainfall
Hydrological model
Climate change
Flood

미래 기후변화 현상은 농촌지역의 홍수 위험을 중가 시켜 농업의 지속 가능성과 식량 안보를 위협할 것으로 예견된다. 본 연구에서는 미래기후변화를 파악하기 위해 세 개의 GCM을 선정하여 RCP 및 SSP 시나리오 중 중간 및 극한조건을 각각 적용하여 미래 기후변화를 예측하였다. 충북 청주시 신대지구를 대상으로 미래 홍수 위험도를 평가하기 위한 수문 모델을 개발하였으며, 대상지구에서 발생했던 2021~2022년내 강우사상에 대한 시우량, 유출량 측정자료를 사용하여 수문 모델을 검보정 하였다. RCP와 SSP 시나리오에 의한 미래 기상자료를 활용하여 홍수 위험 정도를 비교 분석한 결과. 미래로 갈수록 극한 강우 발생가능성이 높아지는 경향을 보여, 2051~2100년 기간에 극한강우 발생 가능성이 가장 높게 나타났다. 대상지구에서 발생한 침수심이 700 mm를 초과하는 경우는 2015~2030년 기간에는 13~36%, 2031~2050년 기간에는 54~74%, 2051~2100년 기간에는 71~91%를 각각 차지하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 RCP 시나리오 보다 SSP 시나리오에 적용한 미래 기후변화 조건에서 극한 홍수 발생 가능성이 더 높게 나타나는 것으로 평가되었다.

키워드
극한 강우
수문 모델
기후변화
홍수
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 56
  • No :12
  • Pages :955-967
  • Received Date : 2023-11-30
  • Revised Date : 2023-12-08
  • Accepted Date : 2023-12-08
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.12.955
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