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2022 Vol.55, Issue 6 Preview Page
Hydrological drought risk assessment for climate change adaptation in South Korea

기후변화 적응을 위한 우리나라 수문학적 가뭄 위험도 평가

Jungho Seoa
,
Haewon Chib
,
Heey Jin Kimc
,
Yeonjoo Kimd*
서 정호a
,
지 혜원b
,
김 혜진c
,
김 연주d*
aPh.D Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
bMaster Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
cMaster Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
dAssociate Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
a연세대학교 건설환경공학과 박사과정
b연세대학교 건설환경공학과 석사과정
c연세대학교 건설환경공학과 석사과정
d연세대학교 건설환경공학과 부교수
*Corresponding Author
30 June 2022. pp. 421-435
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Abstract

As natural disasters have been increasing due to climate change, sustainable solutions are in need to alleviate the degree of drought hazard, assess and project the drought influence based on future climate change scenarios. In assessing drought risk, socio-economic factors of the region must be considered along with meteorological factors. This study categorized drought hazard, exposure, and vulnerability as three major components of drought risk according to the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) risk assessment framework, and selected indices for each component to quantify the drought risk in South Korea according to the mid-size basins. Combinations of climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways; SSP 1, SSP2 and SSP3) for the near future (2030-2050) ant the far future (2080-2099) were utilized in drought risk analysis, and results were compared with the historical data (1986-2005). In general, the drought risks for all scenarios shows large increases as time proceeds to the far furture. In addition, we analyzed the rank of drought hazard, exposure, vulnerability for drought risk, and each of their contribution. The results showed that the drought hazard is the most contributing component to the increase of drought risk in future and each basin shows varying contributing components. Finally, we suggested countermeasures for each basin according to future climate change scenarios, and thus this study provides made the basis for establishing drought management measures.

Keywords
Climate scenario
Drought risk
Disaster risk Assessment framework

기후변화로 인해 자연재해의 빈도가 증가하고 있어 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 바탕으로 가뭄 영향을 평가 및 전망하고 가뭄 위험도 감소를 위한 기후변화 적응 대책이 필요하다. 가뭄 위험도(risk)를 평가하기 위해서는 기후 요소뿐만 아니라 가뭄 발생 지역의 사회·경제적인 요소들 또한 고려해야 한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 IPCC의 재난 위험도 분석 프레임워크에 따라 가뭄 위험도 평가 요소를 위해성(Hazard), 노출도(Exposure), 취약성(Vulnerability)으로 나누고 이에 맞는 각 지표를 선정하여 우리나라 중권역 단위의 가뭄 위험도를 정량화하였다. 미래 가뭄 위험도 평가를 위해 근 미래(2030-2050년)와 먼 미래(2080년-2099년)에 대해 기후변화 시나리오(RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5)와 사회경제 시나리오(SSP1, SSP2, SSP3)를 조합하여 가뭄 위험도를 살펴보고 이를 과거(1986-2005년)와 비교·분석하였다. 미래 시나리오에 따른 가뭄 위험도는 시간에 따라 전 유역에 걸쳐 먼 미래에 크게 상승하였다. 그리고 가뭄 위험도의 각 요소별 기여도와 순위 분석을 통해 미래 가뭄 위험도 상승에 대해 가뭄 위해성의 기여도가 전반적으로 크고, 유역별로 상승 요인이 다르다는 것을 확인했다. 이에 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 유역별 해결 방안을 제시하여 향후 가뭄대책 수립을 위한 정책에 기반이 될 수 있도록 하였다.

키워드
기후 및 사회·경제시나리오
가뭄 위험도
재난 위험도 분석 프레임워크
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 55
  • No :6
  • Pages :421-435
  • Received Date : 2022-03-24
  • Revised Date : 2022-04-29
  • Accepted Date : 2022-05-02
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.6.421
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