Calculation of optimal design flood using cost-benefit analysis with uncertainty

Sang Ug Kim; Kwang Bae Choi

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.6.405

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2022 Vol.55, Issue 6 Preview Page Next Page

Calculation of optimal design flood using cost-benefit analysis with uncertainty 불확실성이 고려된 비용-편익분석 기법을 도입한 최적설계홍수량 산정

30 June 2022. pp. 405-419

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Abstract

Flood frequency analysis commonly used to design the hydraulic structures to minimize flood damage includes uncertainty. Therefore, the most appropriate design flood within a uncertainty should be selected in the final stage of a hydraulic structure, but related studies were rarely carried out. The total expected cost function introduced into the flood frequency analysis is a new approach for determining the optimal design flood. This procedure has been used as UNCODE (UNcertainty COmpliant DEsign), but the application has not yet been introduced in South Korea. This study introduced the mathematical procedure of UNCODE and calculated the optimal design flood using the annual maximum inflow of hydroelectric dams located in the Bukhan River system and results were compared with that of the existing flood frequency. The parameter uncertainty was considered in the total expected cost function using the Gumbel and the GEV distribution, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to sample the parameters. In this study, cost function and damage function were assumed to be a first-order linear function. It was found that the medians of the optimal design flood for 4 Hydroelectric dams, 2 probability distributions, and 2 return periods were calculated to be somewhat larger than the design flood by the existing flood frequency analysis. In the future, it is needed to develop the practical approximated procedure to UNCODE.

Keywords

UNCODE

Cost-benefit analysis

Total expected cost function

Uncertainty

Hydroelectric dam

홍수피해를 최소화하기 위한 수공구조물의 적정 규모 결정을 위해 사용되는 홍수빈도분석에는 통계적 분석절차에 따른 불확실성이 포함된다. 따라서 불확실성이 포함된 범주 내에서 가장 적절한 설계홍수량(design flood)을 결정하는 과정은 수공구조물의 최종단계에서 중요하게 다루어져야 하는 부분이나 이를 제시한 연구는 많지 않다. 비용-편익 분석기법을 홍수빈도분석 절차에 도입하여 구성되는 총 기대비용함수(total expected cost function)는 설계홍수량 중 최적설계홍수량(optimal design flood)을 결정하기 위한 새로운 접근방식이다. 이 절차는 UNCODE (UNcertainty COmpliant DEsign)로 명명되어 사용된 바 있으나, 국내에서는 아직 적용 결과가 소개되지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 UNCODE의 수학적 구성 절차를 소개함과 함께 북한강수계에 위치한 수력발전댐(화천댐, 춘천댐, 의암댐, 청평댐)의 연최대유입량을 사용하여 최적설계홍수량을 산정하고 이 결과를 기존 홍수빈도분석 결과와 비교하였다. 불확실성이 고려된 총 기대비용함수로부터 확률분포함수들(Gumbel 및 GEV)의 모수를 추출하는 과정에서 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘을 사용하여 불확실성의 범위를 추정하였으며, 비용-편익 분석기법에 사용되는 비용 및 피해함수는 수학적 구성의 편의성을 위하여 1차 선형함수로 가정되었다. 4개의 발전용댐, 2개의 확률분포 및 2개의 재현기간에 대하여 최적설계홍수량의 중앙값이 기존 홍수빈도분석 절차에 의해 산정된 설계홍수량보다 일정 정도 큰 값으로 산정됨을 알 수 있었다. 향후에는 본 연구에서 적용된 절차를 간단한 수식형태로 함수화하여 발전용댐 운영의 실무업무나 하천기본계획의 수립 등에 있어 비용-편익분석 기법의 적용성을 높이기 위한 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

키워드

UNCODE

비용-편익 분석

총 기대비용함수

불확실성

수력발전댐

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 55
No :6
Pages :405-419
Received Date : 2022-02-04
Revised Date : 2022-03-23
Accepted Date : 2022-04-04
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2022.55.6.405

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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