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2018 Vol.51, Issue 11S Preview Page

Research Article

Evaluation on the water supply stability of nakdong river basin based on future scenarios

미래 시나리오 기반 낙동강 유역의 용수공급 안정성 평가

Si Jung Choia
,
Seong Kyu Kanga*
,
Dong-Ryul Leea
,
Shin-Uk Kangb
최 시중a
,
강 성규a*
,
이 동률a
,
강 신욱b
aDepartment of Land, Water and Environment Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology
bStrategic Research Group for Korea Water Grid, K-water Institute
a한국건설기술연구원 국토보전연구본부
bK-water융합연구원 KWG 연구단
* Corresponding Author
30 November 2018. pp. 1105-1115
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Abstract

In Korea, there are only a few cases that quantitative evaluate the impacts of climate change on water supply. Therefore, to ensure stable water supply in the future, a water resources plan is needed to establish by analyzing the scenarios that take into consideration the various situations in the future. In this study, we analyzed the changes of various situations for the Nakdong River basin, and constructed it for the future scenario. The stability of the water supply was analyzed through the analysis of water supply and demand prospect for each scenario path. We selected the areas expected to experience difficulty in supplying water supply and analyzed the scenarios of future water shortage by region and water sector. Also, the effect of increasing water supply capacity through optimal integrated operation of water supply facilities was analyzed and presented. Analysis of the results shows that there is a difficulty in supplying water due to future climate change experienced in the Nakdong River basin. Therefore it is necessary to prepare various countermeasures in order to mitigate or solve this problem.

Keywords
Climate change
Future scenario
Water supply and demand prospect
Water shortage scenario

최근 국내에서는 기후변화가 용수공급에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가한 사례가 많지 않으며 이와 관련된 다양한 정보를 제공하지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 미래의 안정적인 용수공급을 위해 미래 다양한 상황에 대한 분석을 통한 수자원 계획이 절실하다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강 유역을 대상으로 미래 다양한 상황을 시나리오로 구성하고 각 시나리오 경로에 대한 물 수급 전망을 통해 용수공급의 안정성을 분석하였다. 분석 결과를 통해 용수공급의 어려움을 겪을 것으로 예상되는 물 공급 취약지역을 선정하여 제시하였으며 지역별, 용도별 물 부족 시나리오를 전망하였다. 또한 용수공급시설물의 최적연계 운영을 통해 용수공급 능력 증대 효과도 분석하여 제시하였다. 향후 낙동강 유역에는 기후변화 등으로 인해 용수공급의 어려움이 예상됨에 따라 이를 완화 또는 해소하기 위해서 보다 다양한 대책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

키워드
기후변화
미래 시나리오
물 수급 전망
물 부족 시나리오
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 51
  • No :11
  • Pages :1105-1115
  • Received Date : 2018-07-31
  • Revised Date : 2018-10-13
  • Accepted Date : 2018-10-30
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.S-1.1105
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