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2026 Vol.59, Issue 3 Preview Page

Research Article

International comparison of frequency analysis programs with Busan

국내 및 미국의 수문빈도 해석프로그램 기반 부산 지역 홍수위험도 분석

Seonghyeon Hwanga
,
Taesam Leeb*
,
Yejin Kongc
황 성현a
,
이 태삼b*
,
공 예진c
aResearcher, Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Korea
bProfessor, Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Korea
cResearcher, Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Korea
a경상국립대학교 토목공학과 연구원
b경상국립대학교 토목공학과 교수
c경상국립대학교 토목공학과 연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 March 2026. pp. 245-254
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Abstract

Unanticipated natural disasters, especially flash floods, are rising under global climate change and intensify risks to hydraulic infrastructure. This study presents a comparative evaluation of two frequency analysis tools, RFAHD (Regional Frequency Analysis for Hydrological Data) and HEC SSP (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Statistical Software Package), for design flood estimation. Continuous sub hourly rainfall records from 1961 to present at Busan observation station No 159 in Jung-gu, Busan, serve as input. RFAHD derives flood magnitudes by conducting annual maximum rainfall frequency analysis and coupling results with a rainfall runoff model, whereas HEC SSP applies Bulletin 17B and 17C statistical methods directly to flood data. By running both tools on identical datasets, we quantify differences arising from hydrologic model selection and statistical distribution assumptions, with special attention to intensity duration frequency curve extrapolation. Results highlight systematic biases in extreme‐event estimates and underscore each tool’s suitability. Our findings inform the choice of analysis software for robust hydraulic structure design under changing climate conditions.

Keywords
Climate change
Flood discharge
Precipitation
Frequency analysis

전 세계적인 기후 변화로 인해 예측이 어려운 자연재해의 발생이 증가하고 있으며, 특히 돌발 홍수의 빈도 및 피해 규모가 확대되고 있다. 이에 따라 수공 구조물의 설계의 중요성이 증대되고 있는 실정이다. 수공 구조물의 공학적 설계 기준은 설계 홍수량이며, 이는 확률 강우량 산정, 강우 강도 추정, 유출 해석, 그리고 설계 홍수량 산정의 절차를 거쳐 수행된다. 따라서 적절한 수공 구조물의 설계 기준을 설립하기 위하여 빈도해석이 중요할 것으로 사료되었으며, 연구를 수행하고 분석하기 위하여 충분한 강우자료가 있어야 할 것으로 판단되었다. 이에 따라 장기 강우 관측 자료를 보유하고 있는 경상남도 부산광역시 중구에 위치한 부산 관측소의 시 강우량 자료를 활용하였다. 국내에서는 일반적으로 RFAHD (Regional Frequency Analysis for Hydrological Data)가, 국외에서는 HEC-SSP (Statistical software Package)가 빈도 해석 도구로 활용되고 있다. RFAHD는 일반적으로 연 최대 강우량을 이용하여 빈도 해석을 실시한 후 해석 결과를 강우-유출 모형에 적용하여 빈도별 홍수량을 산정하는 방식이며, HEC-SSP는 미 육군 공병단에서 개발한 수문 통계 분석 도구로, 일반적으로 Bulletin 17B 및 17C 등의 해석 기법을 적용하여 홍수량 자체에 대한 빈도 해석을 수행한다. 강우-유출 모형으로 빈도별 홍수량 산정 시 각 모형에 따라 결괏값들에서 차이를 가지게 된다. 따라서 본 연구는 동일한 입력자료를 바탕으로 RFAHD와 HEC-SSP에서 빈도 해석을 수행하고, 각 프로그램의 해석 결과 및 분포형 차이에 따른 결과를 비교·분석하여 우리나라에서의 빈도해석 방법 적정성을 평가하였다.

키워드
기후 변화
홍수량
강우량
빈도해석
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 59
  • No :3
  • Pages :245-254
  • Received Date : 2025-06-27
  • Revised Date : 2026-01-05
  • Accepted Date : 2026-01-09
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.3.245
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