Probabilistic evaluation of ecological drought in forest areas using satellite remote sensing data

Jeongeun Won; Jiyu Seo; Shin-Uk Kang; Sangdan Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.9.705

All Issue

2021 Vol.54, Issue 9 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Probabilistic evaluation of ecological drought in forest areas using satellite remote sensing data 인공위성 원격 감지 자료를 활용한 산림지역의 생태학적 가뭄 가능성에 대한 확률론적 평가

30 September 2021. pp. 705-718

PDF XML

Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the possibility of ecological drought was investigated using satellite remote sensing data. First, the Vegetation Health Index was estimated from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature provided by MODIS. Then, a joint probability model was constructed to estimate the possibility of vegetation-related drought in various precipitation/evaporation scenarios in forest areas around 60 major ASOS sites of the Meteorological Administration located throughout Korea. The results of this study show the risk pattern of drought related to forest vegetation under conditions of low atmospheric moisture supply or high atmospheric moisture demand. It also identifies the sensitivity of drought risks associated with forest vegetation under various meterological drought conditions. These findings provide insights for decision makers to assess drought risk and develop drought mitigation strategies related to forest vegetation in a warming era.

Keywords

Copula

Ecological drought

Forest

Satellite remote sensing data

Vegetation

본 연구에서는 위성 원격 감지 자료를 사용하여 생태학적 가뭄의 가능성을 조사하였다. 먼저 MODIS에서 제공하는 정규식생지수와 지표면온도로부터 식생건강성지수를 추정하였다. 그런 다음 우리나라 전 지역에 분포하고 있는 기상청 ASOS 주요 60개 지점 주변의 산림지역에서 다양한 강수/증발산 시나리오에 따른 식생 관련 가뭄의 가능성을 추정하기 위한 결합 확률모델을 구성하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 대기의 수분공급이 열악하거나 대기의 수분 요구량이 과도한 조건에서 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄의 위험 패턴을 보여준다. 또한 다양한 기상학적 가뭄 조건에서 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄 위험의 민감도를 나타낸다. 이러한 연구 결과는 의사 결정권자가 가뭄 위험을 평가하고 온난화 시대에 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄 완화 전략을 개발할 수 있는 통찰력을 제공할 것으로 기대된다.

키워드

코퓰러

생태학적 가뭄

산림

인공위성 원격 감지 자료

식생

References

AghaKouchak, A., Farahmand, A., Melton, F.S., Teixeira, J., Anderson, M.C., Wardlow, B.D., and Hain, C.R. (2015). "Remote sensing of drought: Progress, challenges and opportunities." Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 53, No. 2, pp. 452-480. doi: 10.1002/2014RG000456 10.1002/2014RG000456

Allen, R.G., Periera, L.S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration: Guidelines for computing crop requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome, Italia.

Asner, G.P., and Alencar, A. (2010). "Drought impacts on the Amazon forest: the remote sensing perspective." New Phytologist, Vol. 187, No. 3, pp. 569-578. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03310.x 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03310.x20524994

Bárdossy, A., and Pegram, G.G.S. (2009). "Copula based multisite model for daily precipitation simulation." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 12, pp. 2299-2314. doi: 10.5194/hess-13-2299-2009 10.5194/hess-13-2299-2009

Chang, Y.Y., Kim, S.D., and Choi, G.W. (2006). "A study of drought spatio-temporal characteristics using SPI-EOF analysis." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 39, No. 8, pp. 691-702. doi: 10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.8.691 (in Korean) 10.3741/JKWRA.2006.39.8.691

Cong, N., Wang, T., Nan, H., Ma, Y., Wang, X., Myneni, R.B., and Piao, S. (2013). "Changes in satellite derived spring vegetation green up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: A multimethod analysis." Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 881-891. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12077 10.1111/gcb.1207723504844

de Jong, R., Verbesselt, J., Schaepman, M.E., and De Bruin, S. (2012). "Trend changes in global greening and browning: Contribution of short term trends to longer term change." Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 642-655. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02578.x 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02578.x

Duan, Z., and Bastiaanssen, W.G.M. (2013). "First results from Version 7 TRMM 3B43 precipitation product in combination with a new downscaling - calibration procedure." Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 131, pp. 1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.12.002 10.1016/j.rse.2012.12.002

Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., Jonh, J., Jones, C., Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W., Lindsay, K., Mattews, H.D., Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K.-G., Schnur, R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, A.J., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N. (2006). "Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP model intercomparison." Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, No. 14, pp. 3337-3353. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3800.1 10.1175/JCLI3800.1

Ghaleb, F., Mario, M., and Sandra, A.N. (2015). "Regional landsat-based drought monitoring from 1982 to 2014." Climate, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 563-577. doi: 10.3390/cli3030563 10.3390/cli3030563

Heumann, B.W. (2011). "Satellite remote sensing of mangrove forests: Recent advances and future opportunities." Progress in Physical Geography, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 87-108. doi: 10.177/0309133310385371 10.1177/0309133310385371

Hobbins, M.T., Wood, A., McEvoy, D.J., Huntington, J.L., Morton, C., Anderson, M., and Hain, C. (2016). "The evaporative demand drought index. Part I: Linking drought evolution to variations in evaporative demand." Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. 1745-1761. doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0121.1 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0121.1

Ichii, K., Kawabata, A., and Yamaguchi, Y. (2002). "Global correlation analysis for NDVI and climatic variables and NDVI trends: 1982-1990." International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 23, No. 18, pp. 3873-3878. doi: 10.1080/01431160110119416 10.1080/01431160110119416

Ji, L., and Peters, A.J. (2003). "Assessing vegetation response to drought in the northern Great Plains using vegetation and drought indices." Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 87, No. 1, pp. 85-98. doi: 10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00174-3 10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00174-3

Kim, S., Kim, B., Ahn, T.J., and Kim, H.S. (2011). "Spatio temporal characterization of Korean drought using severity-area-duration curve analysis." Water and Environment Journal, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 22-30. doi: 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2009.00184.x 10.1111/j.1747-6593.2009.00184.x

Kim, S.D., Ryu, J.S., Oh, K.R., and Jeong, S.M. (2012). "An application of copulas-based joint drought index for determining comprehensive drought conditions." Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 223-230. doi: 10.9798/KOSHAM.2012.12.1.223 (in Korean) 10.9798/KOSHAM.2012.12.1.223

Knapp, A.K., and Smith, M.D. (2001). "Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production." Science, Vol. 291, No. 5503, pp. 481-484. doi: 10.1126/science.291.5503.481 10.1126/science.291.5503.48111161201

Kogan, F.N. (1997). "Global drought watch from space." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, No. 4, pp. 621-636. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0621:GDWFS>2.0.CO;2 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0621:GDWFS>2.0.CO;2

Laux, P., Vogl, S., Qiu, W., Knoche, H.R., and Kunstmann, H. (2011). "Copula-based statistical refinement of precipitation in RCM simulations over complex terrain." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 15, No. 7, pp. 2401-2419. doi: 10.5194/hess-15-2401-2011 10.5194/hess-15-2401-2011

Lévesque, M., Saurer, M., Siegwolf, R., Eilmann, B., Brang, P., Bugmann, H., and Rigling, A. (2013). "Drought response of five conifer species under contrasting water availability suggests high vulnerability of Norway spruce and European larch." Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, No. 10, pp. 3184-3199. doi:10.1111/gcb.12268 10.1111/gcb.1226823712589

Li, B.G., Tao, S., and Dawson, R.W. (2002). "Relations between AVHRR NDVI and ecoclimatic parameters in China." International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 23, No. 5, pp. 989-999. doi:10.1080/014311602753474192 10.1080/014311602753474192

Liu, Z., Li, C., Zhou, P., Chen, X. (2016). A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China. Scientific reports, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 1-10. doi: 10.1038/srep35105 10.1038/srep3510527713530PMC5054395

McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. (1993). "The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales." Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, AMS, Anaheim, CA, U.S.,Vol. 17, No. 22, pp. 179-183.

Mittelbach, G.G., Steiner, C.F., Scheiner, S.M., Gross, K.L., Reynolds, H.L., Waide, R.B., Willig, M.R., Dodson, S.I., and Gough, L. (2001). "What is the observed relationship between species richness and productivity?" Ecology, Vol. 82, No. 9, pp. 2381-2396. doi: 10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[2381:WITORB]2.0.CO;2 10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[2381:WITORB]2.0.CO;2

Orimoloye, I.R., Ololade, O.O., Mazinyo, S.P., Kalumba, A.M., Ekundayo, O.Y., Busayo, E.T., Akinsanola, A.A., and Nel, W. (2019). "Spatial assessment of drought severity in Cape Town area, South Africa." Heliyon, Vol. 5, No. 7, e02148. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e02148 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e0214831388582PMC6676169

Park, J.S., and Kim, K.T. (2009). "Evaluation of MODIS NDVI for drought monitoring: Focused on comparison of drought index." Spatial Information Research, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 117-129. (in Korean)

Peng, S., Chen, A., Xu, L., Cao, C., Fang, J., Myneni, R.B., Pinzon, J. E., Tucker, C.J., and Piao, S. (2011). "Recent change of vegetation growth trend in China." Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 6, No. 4, 044027. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044027 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044027

Peng, S.S., Piao, S., Zeng, Z., Ciais, P., Zhou, L., Li, L.Z., Myneni, R. B., Yin, Y., and Zeng, H. (2014). "Afforestation in China cools local land surface temperature." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, No. 8, pp. 2915-2919. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1315126111 10.1073/pnas.131512611124516135PMC3939881

Piao, S., Ciais, P., Huang, Y., Shen, Z., Peng, S., Li, J., Zhou, L., Liu, H., Ma, Y., Ding, Y., Friedlingstein, P., Liu, C., Tan, K., Yu, Y., Zhang, T., and Fang, J. (2010). "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China." Nature, Vol. 467, No. 7311, pp. 43-51. doi: 10.1038/nature09364 10.1038/nature0936420811450

Piao, S., Nan, H., Huntingford, C., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Peng, S., Ahlström, A., Canadell, J.G., Cong, N., Levis, S., Levy, P.E., Liu, L., Lomas, M.R., Mao, J., Myneni, R.B., Peylin, P., Poulter, B., Shi, X., Yin, G., Viovy, N., Wang, T., Wang, X., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Zeng, Z.Z., and Chen, A. (2014). "Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity." Nature Communications, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-7. doi: 10.1038/ncomms6018 10.1038/ncomms601825318638

Piao, S., Yin, G., Tan, J., Cheng, L., Huang, M., Li, Y., Liu, R., Mao, J., Myneni, R.B., Peng, S., Poulter, B., Shi, X., Xiao, Z., Zeng, N., Zeng, Z.Z., and Wang, Y. (2015). "Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years." Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 1601-1609. doi:10.1111/gcb.12795 10.1111/gcb.1279525369401

Pielke, R.A., Avissar, R., Raupach, M., Dolman, A.J., Zeng, X., and Denning, A.S. (1998). "Interactions between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems: Influence on weather and climate." Global Change Biology, Vol. 4, No. 5, pp. 461-475. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.1998.t01-1-00176.x 10.1046/j.1365-2486.1998.t01-1-00176.x

Ryu, J.S., Ahn, J., and Kim, S. (2012). "An application of drought severity-area-duration curves using copulas-based joint drought index." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 45, No. 10, pp. 1043-1050. doi: 10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.10.1043 (in Korean) 10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.10.1043

Sadegh, M., Ragno, E., and AghaKouchak, A. (2017). "Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT): Describing dependence and underlying uncertainty using a B ayesian framework." Water Resources Research, Vol. 53, No. 6, pp. 5166-5183. doi: 10.1002/2016WR020242 10.1002/2016WR020242

Salvadori, G., and De Michele, C. (2004). "Frequency analysis via copulas: Theoretical aspects and applications to hydrological events." Water Resources Research, Vol. 40, No. 12, doi: 10.1029/2004WR003133 10.1029/2004WR003133

Sklar, M. (1959). "Fonctions de repartition an dimensions et leurs marges." Publications de l'Institut de statistique de l'Université de Paris, Vol. 8, pp. 229-231.

Tourre, Y.M., Jarlan, L., Lacaux, J.P., Rotela, C.H., and Lafaye, M. (2008). "Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI - precipitation over southernmost South America: Possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics." Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 3, No. 4, 044008. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044008 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044008

Won, J., and Kim, S. (2020). "Future drought analysis using SPI and EDDI to consider climate change in South Korea." Water Supply, Vol. 20, No. 8, pp. 3266-3280, ws2020209, doi: 10.2166/ws.2020.209. 10.2166/ws.2020.209

Won, J., Choi, J., Lee, O. and Kim, S. (2020a). "Copula-based Joint Drought Index using SPI and EDDI and its application to climate change." Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 744, 140701. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140701 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.14070132755772

Won, J., Choi, J., Lee, O., Seo, J., and Kim, S. (2020b). "Weighting coefficient estimation of vegetation health index for ecological drought analysis." Journal of Wetlands Research, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 275-285. doi: 10.17663/JWR.2020.22.4.275. (in Korean) 10.1039/D0GC90012E

Won, J., Jang, S., Kim, K., and Kim, S. (2018). "Applicability of the evaporative demand drought index." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 431-442. doi: 10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.6.431 (in Korean) 10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.6.431

Yao, N., Li, Y., Lei, T., and Peng, L. (2018). "Drought evolution, severity and trends in mainland China over 1961-2013." Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 616, pp. 73-89. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.327 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.32729107781

Zhang, L., and Singh, V.P. (2007). "Bivariate rainfall frequency distributions using Archimedean copulas." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 332, No. 1-2, pp. 93-109. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.06.033 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.06.033

Zhang, L.S.V.P., and Singh, V.P. (2006). "Bivariate flood frequency analysis using the copula method." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 150-164. doi: 10.1061/ASCE1084-0699200611:2150 10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2006)11:2(150)

Zhang, Y., Gao, J., Liu, L., Wang, Z., Ding, M., and Yang, X. (2013). "NDVI-based vegetation changes and their responses to climate change from 1982 to 2011: A case study in the Koshi River Basin in the middle Himalayas." Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 108, pp. 139-148. doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.012 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.012

Zhong, L., Ma, Y., Salama, M.S., and Su, Z. (2010). "Assessment of vegetation dynamics and their response to variations in precipitation and temperature in the Tibetan Plateau." Climatic Change, Vol. 103, No. 3, pp. 519-535. doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9787-8 10.1007/s10584-009-9787-8

Zhou, G., Houlton, B.Z., Wang, W., Huang, W., Xiao, Y., Zhang, Q., Liu, S., Cao, M., Wang, X., Wang, S., Zhang, Y., Yan, J., Liu, J., Tang, X., and Zhang, D. (2014). "Substantial reorganization of China's tropical and subtropical forests: Based on the permanent plots." Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 240-250. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12385 10.1111/gcb.1238524022892

Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 54
No :9
Pages :705-718
Received Date : 2021-06-15
Revised Date : 2021-07-14
Accepted Date : 2021-07-14
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.9.705

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

All Issue