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2024 Vol.57, Issue 10 Preview Page

Research Article

Study on the improvement for envelopment curve of probable maximum precipitation

가능최대강수량 포락곡선 개선방안 연구

Yoohyun Becka
,
Jaehyun Ahnb*
,
Hyonkook Choc
백 유현a
,
안 재현b*
,
조 현국c
aDoctoral Student, Department of Urban Infrastructure and Disaster Prevention Engineering, Seokyeong University, Seoul, Korea
bProfessor, Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Seokyeong University, Seoul, Korea
cDoctoral Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea
a서경대학교 대학원 도시기반방재안전공학과 박사과정
b서경대학교 이공대학 토목건축공학과 교수
c경북대학교 대학원 토목공학과 박사과정
*Corresponding Author
31 October 2024. pp. 725-739
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Abstract

In Korea, the national PMP map is used to calculate the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) but the intercept adjustments are necessary to obtain uniform PMP envelopment results. The Box-Cox and cubic Spline methods to get the PMP envelopment modeling were proposed by the past studies.. However there has been no significant progress in the study of PMP envelopment modeling since then. This study, which focused on the last step of PMP estimation process in Korea, used the Monotone Cubic Spline (MCS) and compared with existing methods. As a result, the intercept adjustments involving the engineer's subjectivity were necessary to obtain smooth envelopment curves in case of using the existing method such as the cubic spline. However, a smooth envelopment curves were obtained without intercept adjustment in case of using MCS method. Therefore, using the MCS method for dam-related new projects can get smooth and consistent envelopment results without intercept adjustment for PMP calculation in Korea.

Keywords
Probable maximum precipitation
Envelopment
Intercept adjustment
Cubic spline
Monotone cubic spline
Leverage point

국내에서는 PMP 산정시 전국 PMP도를 독치법을 이용하고 있으며, 임의 절편조정을 통해 균일한 포락결과를 얻고 있다. 기존 연구에서는 임의성 배제 및 균일하고 객관적인 포락결과를 얻기 위한 방법으로 Box-Cox와 3차 Spline 방법을 제시했으나 이후 PMP 포락 모형화에 대한 연구에 큰 진전이 없었다. 본 연구에서는 국내 PMP 산정 과정 중 마지막 단계인 포락 모형화 방법으로 단조 3차 스플라인(Monotone Cubic Spline, MCS)을 적용했으며, 기존의 포락 모형화 방법과 비교·검토했다. 그 결과 기존 방법을 이용할 때는 균일한 포락결과를 얻기 위해 엔지니어의 주관성이 반영된 절편조정이 필요했으나, MCS 방법을 이용한 경우에는 별도의 절편조정 없이도 균일하고 객관성있는 결과를 얻을 수 있다. 따라서 향후 댐 관련 사업 시 MCS 방법을 이용한다면 절편조정 없이도 균일하고 객관성 있는 포락 결과를 얻을 수 있다고 판단된다.

키워드
가능최대강수량
포락
절편조정
3차 스플라인
단조 3차 스플라인
지레점
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 57
  • No :10
  • Pages :725-739
  • Received Date : 2024-07-22
  • Revised Date : 2024-09-09
  • Accepted Date : 2024-10-04
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2024.57.10.725
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