Estimation of optimal runoff hydrograph using radar rainfall ensemble and blending technique of rainfall-runoff models

Myungjin Lee; Narae Kang; Jongsung Kim; Hung Soo Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.3.221

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2018 Vol.51, Issue 3 Preview Page Next Page

Estimation of optimal runoff hydrograph using radar rainfall ensemble and blending technique of rainfall-runoff models 레이더 강우 앙상블과 유출 블랜딩 기법을 이용한 최적 유출 수문곡선 산정

31 March 2018. pp. 221-233

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Abstract

Recently, the flood damage by the localized heavy rainfall and typhoon have been frequently occurred due to the climate change. Accurate rainfall forecasting and flood runoff estimates are needed to reduce such damages. However, the uncertainties are involved in guage rainfall, radar rainfall, and the estimated runoff hydrograph from rainfall-runoff models. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify the uncertainty of rainfall by generating a probabilistic radar rainfall ensemble and confirm the uncertainties of hydrological models through the analysis of the simulated runoffs from the models. The blending technique is used to estimate a single integrated or an optimal runoff hydrograph by the simulated runoffs from multi rainfall-runoff models. The radar ensemble is underestimated due to the influence of rainfall intensity and topography and the uncertainty of the rainfall ensemble is large. From the study, it will be helpful to estimate and predict the accurate runoff to prepare for the disaster caused by heavy rainfall.

Keywords

Rainfall ensemble

Blending technique

Uncertainty

Rainfall-runoff model

최근 기후변화로 인한 국지성 호우 및 태풍 피해가 자주 발생하고 있다. 이와 같은 피해를 저감하기 위해서는 정확한 강우의 예측과 홍수량 산정이 필요하다. 그러나 지점 및 레이더 강우 시 ․ 공간적 오차를 포함하고 있고, 유출 모형에 의한 유출수문곡선 역시 보정을 실시하더라도 관측유량과 오차를 가지고 있어 불확실성이 존재한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 확률론적 강우 앙상블을 생성하여 강우의 불확실성을 확인하였다. 또한 유출 결과를 통해 수문 모형의 불확실성을 확인하였고, 블랜딩 기법을 이용하여 하나의 통합된 유출 수문곡선을 제시하였다. 생성된 강우앙상블은 강우강도 및 지형적인 영향으로 레이더가 과소 관측이 될 때, 강우 앙상블의 불확실성이 큰 것을 확인하였고, 블랜딩 기법을 적용하여 산정된 최적 유출 수문곡선은 유출모형의 불확실성을 크게 줄이는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구 결과를 활용한다면, 정확한 홍수량 산정 및 예측을 통해 집중호우로 인한 피해를 줄일 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

키워드

강우 앙상블

블랜딩 기법

불확실성

강우-유출 모형

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 51
No :3
Pages :221-233
Received Date : 2017-10-30
Revised Date : 2017-12-13
Accepted Date : 2017-12-13
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.3.221

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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