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2026 Vol.59, Issue 1 Preview Page

Research Article

Development and application of a technique to generate seepage fragility curves for river embankments using SEEP/W

SEEP/W를 이용한 하천 제방의 누수 취약도 곡선 작성 기법 개발 및 적용

Heeseong Parka
,
Du Han Leeb*
박 희성a
,
이 두한b*
aResearch Fellow, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
bSenior Research Fellow, Department of Hydro Science and Engineering Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
a한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 연구위원
b한국건설기술연구원 수자원하천연구본부 선임연구위원
*Corresponding Author
31 January 2026. pp. 85-99
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Abstract

This study developed an automated analysis technique based on SEEP/W to probabilistically evaluate the seepage stability of river levees and applied it to an actual levee cross-section to derive seepage fragility curves. To account for the uncertainty of levee materials—particularly the variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity—Monte Carlo simulation and Latin Hypercube Sampling were employed. A Python-based automation program was implemented to handle input data generation, iterative simulations, result storage, and visualization in an integrated manner. When applied to a real levee cross-section, the method identified the hydraulic conductivities of the embankment and foundation soil, the length and head of the phreatic line, and the levee geometry as the main factors influencing the probability of failure. Probability density function (PDF) analysis showed that as the water level rises, the distribution of exit hydraulic gradients becomes flatter and the mode shifts to the right. These findings are consistent with previous studies, demonstrating the validity of the proposed methodology. The presented approach can be practically applied to setting priorities for levee reinforcement and inspection, managing flood risk, and formulating investment plans.

Keywords
SEEP/W
Monte carlo simulation
Fragility curve
Hydraulic conductivity
Levee stability

본 연구는 하천 제방의 침투 안정성을 확률론적으로 평가하기 위해 SEEP/W 기반의 자동화 해석 기법을 개발하고, 이를 실제 제방 단면에 적용하여 침투 취약도 곡선을 산정하였다. 제방 재료의 불확실성, 특히 포화 투수계수의 변동성을 반영하기 위해 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션과 라틴 하이퍼큐프 샘플링 기법을 적용하였으며, Python 기반 자동화 프로그램을 통해 입력 자료 생성, 반복 해석 수행, 결과 저장 및 시각화를 일괄적으로 수행할 수 있도록 하였다. 개발된 기법을 실제 제방 단면에 적용하였다. 적용 결과에 의하면 제체와 하부 지반의 투수계수, 침윤선 길이와 수두, 제방 형상 등이 파괴 확률의 주요 인자로 나타났다. PDF 분석에서는 수위 상승 시 유출 동수경사 분포가 평탄화되며 최빈값이 우측으로 이동하는 특성이 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 기존 연구와 일치하며 본 연구에서 제시한 방법론이 적합함을 나타낸다. 제시된 방법론은 제방의 보강·점검 우선순위 설정, 홍수 위험도 관리 및 투자계획 수립 등에 실무적으로 적용될 수 있다.

키워드
SEEP/W
몬테카를로 시뮬레이션
취약도 곡선
투수계수
제방 안정성
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 59
  • No :1
  • Pages :85-99
  • Received Date : 2025-10-23
  • Revised Date : 2025-12-02
  • Accepted Date : 2025-12-08
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.1.85
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