Assessment of hydrological drought risk in the southern region in 2022: based on bivariate regional drought frequency analysis

Yun-Sung Kim; Min-Kyu Jung; Tae-Woong Kim; Seung-Myeong Jeong; Hyun-Han Kwon

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.2.151

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2023 Vol.56, Issue 2 Preview Page

Research Article

Assessment of hydrological drought risk in the southern region in 2022: based on bivariate regional drought frequency analysis 2022년 남부지역 수문학적 가뭄위험도 평가: 수문학적 이변량 가뭄 지역빈도해석 중심으로

28 February 2023. pp. 151-163

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Abstract

This study explored the 2022 drought over the Nakdong River watershed. Here, we developed a bivariate regional frequency analysis method to evaluate the risk of hydrological drought. Currently, natural streamflow data are generally limited to accurately estimating the drought frequency. Under this circumstance, the existing at site frequency analysis can be problematic in estimating the drought risk. On the other hand, a regional frequency analysis could provide a more reliable estimation of the joint return periods of drought variables by pooling available streamflow data over the entire watershed. More specifically, the Copula-based regional frequency analysis model was proposed to effectively take into account the tail dependencies between drought variables. The results confirmed that the regional frequency analysis model showed better performance in model fit by comparing the goodness-of-fit measures with the at-site frequency analysis model. We find that the estimated joint return period of the 2022 drought in the Nakdong River basin is about eight years. In the case of the Nam river Dam, the joint return period was approximately 20 years, which can be regarded as a relatively severe drought over the last three decades.

Keywords

Hydrological drought

Copula

Bivariate regional drought frequency analysis

본 연구에서는 수문학적 가뭄의 위험도 평가를 위해 이변량 지역빈도해석 방법을 적용하여 2022년 가뭄 빈도를 평가하였다. 현재 우리나라의 수문학 분야에서 사용 가능한 자료의 대부분이 자료연수가 부족하여 기존의 지점빈도해석 수행 시 도출되는 결과의 신뢰도에는 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 유입량 자료를 대상으로 지역빈도분석을 수행하였으며, 최종적으로는 가뭄사상의 결합재현기간을 도출하여 가뭄위험도 평가를 위한 각 댐별 빈도분석을 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 제안되는 Copula 기반 지역빈도해석 모형은 가뭄변량 간의 상관성 및 극치 특성을 효과적으로 반영하는 것을 확인할 수 있었으며, 지역빈도해석모형과 지점빈도해석모형의 적합성 검정 결과의 비교를 통해 지역빈도해석 모형의 장점을 확인할 수 있었다. 결과적으로 2022년에 발생한 낙동강 유역의 수문학적 가뭄사상은 결합재현기간이 8년을 상회하는 것으로 나타났으며 남강댐의 경우 결합재현기간이 20년으로 평가되어 낙동강 유역에서 상대적으로 심한 가뭄이 발생한 것으로 판단된다.

키워드

수문학적 가뭄

코플라

이변량 가뭄 지역빈도해석

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 56
No :2
Pages :151-163
Received Date : 2022-11-13
Revised Date : 2023-01-08
Accepted Date : 2023-01-27
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.2.151

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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