A performance degradation model for river gates in Korea using the Kaplan-Meier method and probabilistic approaches

Seoyoung Kim; Ju-Young Shin; Soyung Choi; Ji-Hye Kwon; Sooyoung Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.7.715

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2026 Vol.59, Issue 7 Preview Page Next Page

A performance degradation model for river gates in Korea using the Kaplan-Meier method and probabilistic approaches Kaplan-Meier 방법과 확률론적 방법을 활용한 우리나라 하천 수문의 성능 저하 모델 개발

31 July 2026. pp. 715-724

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Abstract

In this study, a performance deterioration prediction model was developed for river sluice gates and culverts. The overall performance trajectory of the facilities was characterized using safety inspection grade data collected by public institutions. A survival analysis was conducted, defining the first observation of a C grade as the event of interest, which naturally accounts for right-censored observations. Using the Kaplan-Meier method, it was confirmed that 50% of all sluice gates and culverts reached C grade at approximately 33.4 years after construction. To enable extrapolation beyond the observed period, four parametric probability distributions were fitted to the survival data. The most appropriate distribution was identified using the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Cox-Snell residual analysis. Among the candidates, Weibull distribution exhibited the best goodness-of-fit. These findings can provide a basis for determining preemptive maintenance timing and prioritizing river facilities within limited budgets.

Keywords

Kaplan-Meier estimator

Probabilistic approach

Hydraulic gate

Performance classification

Survival function

Climate change

본 연구는 수문 및 통문 시설물을 대상으로 하천시설물 성능 변화 예측 모델을 구축하였다. 공공기관에서 수집한 하천시설물 중 수문 및 통문 시설물의 안전 등급을 입력자료로 사용해 시설물의 전체 성능 변화를 예측하였다. 하천시설물의 우측 절단 데이터를 모두 반영하기 위해 안전 등급이 C 등급이 되는 최초의 시점을 관심 사건으로 정의해 생존분석을 진행했다. Kaplan-Meier (KM) 방법을 통해 KM 곡선을 그려 그 결과, 전체 시설물 중 50%가 C 등급에 도달하게 되는 시점이 33.4년임을 확인할 수 있었다. 데이터가 축적된 기간을 넘어 전체 시설물의 성능 변화를 예측하기 위해 4가지 매개변수 확률분포에 데이터를 적합시켰다. 4가지 후보 중 최종분포형를 찾기 위해 Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion 값과 Cox-Snell 잔차분석을 사용하여 평가하였다. 그 결과, Weibull 분포가 최적 분포형으로 판정되었다. 이 연구의 결과는 하천시설물의 선제적인 유지 보수 시점을 정하는 근거를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드

Kaplan-Meier 추정법

확률 모형

수문

안전 등급 분류

생존함수

기후변화

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 59
No :7
Pages :715-724
Received Date : 2026-03-13
Revised Date : 2026-05-07
Accepted Date : 2026-05-18
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.7.715

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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