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2025 Vol.58, Issue 4 Preview Page

Research Article

Understanding seasonal and long-term trends in 21st century seasonal precipitation climatology through observation and high-resolution climate change scenarios

관측자료와 고해상도 시나리오를 활용한 평균과 극한 계절 강수량의 미래장기 추세 분석

Kyungmin Sunga
,
JiHyun Kimb*
성 경민a
,
김 지현b*
aResearch Fellow, Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute, Sejong, Korea
bResearch Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea
a한국환경연구원 국가기후위기적응센터 부연구위원
b연세대학교 토목환경공학과 연구교수
*Corresponding Author
30 April 2025. pp. 359-373
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Abstract

Our study examines long-term trends in 21st century seasonal precipitation using high-resolution Korea National Standard Climate Change Scenarios and East Asia CORDEX data. The study specifically aims to evaluate nonstationary precipitation trends at the observation gauge scale for each season to contribute developing existing studies which primarily focused on coarse spatial and temporal scales, such as annual, or state level. Additionally, our study addresses minimizing biases between observational data and 11 climate change scenarios, and captures nonlinear and nonstationary precipitation trends shared among all datasets. Proposed approach enhances conventional methods, which typically analyze and compare long-term trends of individual precipitation datasets independently. To achieve this, we applied a Hierarchical Generalized Additive Model (HGAM) to precipitation datasets from Seoul, Daejeon, and Taebaek. This methodology enables to analyze long-term trends in mean precipitation, and extreme wet / drought (top/bottom 2% occurrence, respectively) conditions at the same time through single modeling process. The results indicate precipitation trends varies in season and region, but with a notable rise in spring and summer, and relatively stable autumn and winter trends. Furthermore, the SSP5-8.5 scenario exhibits a notable increase both in summer precipitation and variability between extreme wet and dry conditions, compared to SSP1-2.6 scenario. These findings provide a more detailed understanding in precipitation changes at the samll scale region South Korea, and a valuable scientific basis for adapting future climate change and managing water resources.

Keywords
Climate change
Seasonal precipitation trends
Extreme drought
Extreme pluvials
National standard scenario
CORDEX

본 연구는 한반도 계절 강수량의 미래 변화를 정밀히 예측하기 위해 고해상도 국가 표준 시나리오와 동아시아 CORDEX 데이터를 활용하여 강수량의 장기 추세를 분석하였다. 선행 연구들이 한반도의 강수량 변화를 연단위, 한반도 전체 등 큰 시공간 스케일로 예측한 결과를 더욱 발전시키기 위하여 본 연구에서는 강수량의 비정상성(Nonstationarity) 추세를 지점 단위에서 계절별로 평가하는 데 초점을 두었다. 또한, 각 강수량 자료의 추세를 독립적으로 분석 후 비교하는 방식으로 장기추세를 이해하던 기존 방식에서 벗어나 관측자료와 11종의 기후변화 시나리오의 편차를 보정하고, 각 자료가 공통적으로 가지고 있는 강수량 비선형, 비정상성 변화추세를 도출해내는 목적으로 하였다. 이를 위하여 연구 대상 지역인 서울, 대전, 태백의 전 강수량 자료에 계층적 일반화 가법 모형(Hierarchical Generalized Additive Model, HGAM)을 적용하였다.이를 통해 계절별 평균 강수량뿐 아니라 극단적인 우기(상위 2%)와 가뭄(하위 2%) 상태에서의 강수량 변동성을 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 계절별로 강수량의 증가 추세가 다르게 나타나며, 봄 여름 강수량 증가 추세가 두드러지는 반면 가을 겨울 강수량은 변화가 크지 않음을 확인하였다. 또한 SSP1-2.6 시나리오에서는 강수량 변동성이 비교적 작은 반면, SSP5-8.5 시나리오에서는 여름철 강수량 증가 및 극단적인 습윤 및 가뭄의 강도가 더욱 증가하는 경향이 높음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 한반도의 지역별 강수량 변화를 보다 정밀하게 이해하고, 미래 기후변화 대응 및 수자원 관리 전략 수립에 유용한 과학적 근거를 제공할 것으로 기대한다.

키워드
기후변화
계절 강수량 추세
극한 가뭄
극한 우기
국가 표준 기후변화 시나리오
CORDEX
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 58
  • No :4
  • Pages :359-373
  • Received Date : 2025-01-31
  • Revised Date : 2025-03-16
  • Accepted Date : 2025-03-17
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.4.359
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