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2024 Vol.57, Issue 7 Preview Page

Research Article

The effect of climate change on hydroelectric power generation of multipurpose dams according to SSP scenarios

SSP 시나리오에 따른 기후변화가 다목적댐 수력발전량에 미치는 영향 분석

Sizhe Wanga
,
Jiyoung Kimb
,
Yongchan Kimc
,
Dongkyun Kimd*
,
Tae-Woong Kime*
왕 사철a
,
김 지영b
,
김 용찬c
,
김 동균d*
,
김 태웅e*
aMaster Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
bDoctoral Student, Department of Smart City Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
cDoctoral Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul, South Korea
dProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul, South Korea
eProfessor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Ansan, Korea
a한양대학교 대학원 건설환경시스템공학과 석사과정
b한양대학교 대학원 스마트시티공학과 박사과정
c홍익대학교 대학원 토목공학과 박사과정
d홍익대학교 건설환경공학과 교수
e한양대학교(ERICA) 건설환경공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 July 2024. pp. 481-491
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Abstract

Recent droughts make hydroelectric power generation (HPG) decreasing. Due to climate change in the future, the frequency and intensity of drought are expected to increase, which will increase uncertainty of HPG in multi-purpose dams. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the amount of HPG according to climate change scenarios and analyze the effect of drought on the amount of HPG. This study analyzed the future HPG of the Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Regression equations for HPG were developed based on the observed data of power generation discharge and HPG in the past provided by My Water, and future HPGs were estimated according to the SSP scenarios. The effect of drought on the amount of HPG was investigated based on the drought severity calculated using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this study, the future SPIs were calculated using precipitation data based on four GCM models (CanESM5, ACCESS-ESM1-5, INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A) provided through the environmental big data platform. Overall results show that climate change had significant effects on the amount of HPG. In the case of Soyanggang Dam, the amount of HPG decreased in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario the CanESM model showed a 65% reduction in 2031, and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario the ACCESS-ESM1-5 model showed a 54% reduction in 2029. In the case of Chungju Dam, under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios the average monthly HPG compared to the reference period showed a decreasing trend except for INM-CM4 model.

Keywords
Climate Change
Hydroelectric Power Generation
Multipurpose Dam
SSP Scenarios

최근 발생한 가뭄으로 인해 수력발전량이 감소하고 있다. 또한, 미래 기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 빈도와 강도는 커질 것으로 예상되며, 이는 다목적댐의 수력발전량에 대한 불확실성이 커지게 할 것이다. 따라서 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 수력발전량을 추정하고, 가뭄이 수력발전량에 미치는 영향을 분석할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5 시나리오에 따른 소양강댐과 충주댐의 수력발전량을 분석하였다. My water에서 제공되는 수력발전량, 발전방류량 및 총방류량 자료를 바탕으로 수력발전량에 대한 회귀방정식을 개발하고, SSP 시나리오에 따른 미래 수력발전량을 추정하였다. 또한 환경 빅데이터 플랫폼을 통해 제공되는 4개의 GCM (CanESM5, ACCESS-ESM1-5, INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A) 모델에 대한 강수량 자료를 기반으로 표준강수지수(SPI)를 산정하여 연간 가뭄 심각도를 계산하고, 가뭄에 따른 수력발전량을 비교 분석하였다. 전체적인 분석 결과 기후변화는 수력발전량에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 소양강댐의 경우, SSP2-4.5 및 SSP5-8.5 시나리오에서 수력발전량이 감소하는 추세가 나타났고, SSP2-4.5 시나리오에서 CanESM 모델은 2031년에 65%, SSP5-8.5 시나리오에서 ACCESS-ESM1-5 모델은 2029년에 54% 감소하는 것을 나타냈다. 충주댐의 경우, SSP2-4.5와 SSP5-8.5 시나리오에서 기준 기간 대비 월평균 수력발전량이 INM-CM4 모델을 제외하고 감소 추세를 보였다.

키워드
기후변화
가뭄
수력발전량
다목적댐
SSP 시나리오
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 57
  • No :7
  • Pages :481-491
  • Received Date : 2024-05-23
  • Revised Date : 2024-07-03
  • Accepted Date : 2024-07-05
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2024.57.7.481
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