Development of a surrogate model based on temperature for estimation of evapotranspiration and its use for drought index applicability assessment

Ho-Jun Kim; Kyoungwook Kim; Hyun-Han Kwon

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.11.969

All Issue

2021 Vol.54, Issue 11 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Development of a surrogate model based on temperature for estimation of evapotranspiration and its use for drought index applicability assessment 증발산 산정을 위한 온도기반의 대체모형 개발 및 가뭄지수 적용성 평가

30 November 2021. pp. 969-983

PDF XML

Abstract

Evapotranspiration, one of the hydrometeorological components, is considered an important variable for water resource planning and management and is primarily used as input data for hydrological models such as water balance models. The FAO56 PM method has been recommended as a standard approach to estimate the reference evapotranspiration with relatively high accuracy. However, the FAO56 PM method is often challenging to apply because it requires considerable hydrometeorological variables. In this perspective, the Hargreaves equation has been widely adopted to estimate the reference evapotranspiration. In this study, a set of parameters of the Hargreaves equation was calibrated with relatively long-term data within a Bayesian framework. Statistical index (CC, RMSE, IoA) is used to validate the model. RMSE for monthly results reduced from 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month to 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month for the validation period. The results confirmed that the accuracy was significantly improved compared to the existing Hargreaves equation. Further, the evaporative demand drought index (EDDI) based on the evaporative demand (E₀) was proposed. To confirm the effectiveness of the EDDI, this study evaluated the estimated EDDI for the recent drought events from 2014 to 2015 and 2018, along with precipitation and SPI. As a result of the evaluation of the Han-river watershed in 2018, the weekly EDDI increased to more than 2 and it was confirmed that EDDI more effectively detects the onset of drought caused by heatwaves. EDDI can be used as a drought index, particularly for heatwave-driven flash drought monitoring and along with SPI.

Keywords

Reference evapotransipiration

Hargreaves equation

EDDI

Bayesian inference

Drought

수문기상인자 중 하나인 증발산은 수자원 계획 및 관리 시 고려되며, 특히 물수지모형 등 수문모형의 입력자료로 활용된다. FAO56 PM 방법은 기상인자로부터 기준증발산량(reference evapotranspiration, ET₀)을 추정하며, 상대적으로 높은 정확성을 보여준다. 그러나 FAO56 PM 방법은 많은 기상인자가 필요하기 때문에 증발산 추정에 한계가 있다. 이러한 점에서 온도인자 기반의 Hargreaves 식의 매개변수를 Bayesian 모형을 통해 지역적으로 재추정하여 기준증발산량을 산정하였다. 통계 지표(CC, RMSE, IoA)를 활용하여 모형검증을 수행한 결과, 검증 기간에 대해 RMSE는 7.94 ~ 24.91 mm/month에서 6.77 ~ 12.94 mm/month로 기존 Hargreaves 식으로 추정된 증발산량에 비해 정확도가 크게 개선되었다. 본 연구에서는 산정된 기준증발산량을 활용해 증발 요구량(E₀) 기반의 가뭄지수 EDDI (evaporative demand drought index)를 제시하였다. 가뭄지수로서 적용성을 확인하기 위해 강수량 및 SPI와 함께 최근 2014 ~ 2015년, 2018년 가뭄사상을 평가하였다. 한강유역에 위치한 춘천, 홍천의 2018년 가뭄 발생 당시, 주단위 EDDI가 2 이상까지 증가하였으며, 이를 통해 EDDI가 강수부족보다는 폭염에 대한 반응정도가 큰 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 가뭄지수 EDDI는 SPI와 함께 가뭄 분석 및 평가에 대해 활용성이 높은 것으로 사료된다.

키워드

기준증발산량

Hargreaves 공식

EDDI

Bayesian 추론

가뭄

References

Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. Fao, Rome, Vol. 300, No. 9, D05109.

Baldocchi, D.D., Hincks, B.B., and Meyers, T.P. (1988). "Measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of biologically related gases with micrometeorological methods." Ecology, Vol. 69, No. 5, pp. 1331-1340. 10.2307/1941631

Blaney, H.F. (1952). Determining water requirements in irrigated areas from climatological and irrigation data. U.S Department of Agriculture, Washington D.C, U.S., pp. 20-31.

Cai, J., Liu, Y., Lei, T., and Pereira, L.S. (2007). "Estimating reference evapotranspiration with the FAO Penman-Monteith equation using daily weather forecast messages." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 145, No. 1-2, pp. 22-35. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2007.04.012

Chiew, F.H.S., Kamaladasa, N.N., Malano, H.M., and McMahon, T.A. (1995). "Penman-Monteith, FAO-24 reference crop evapotranspiration and class-A pan data in Australia." Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 9-21. 10.1016/0378-3774(95)01172-F

Correia, F.N., Santos, M.A., and Rodrigues, R.P. (1991). "Reliability in regional drought studies." Water Resources Engineering Risk Assessment, NATO ASI Series, Vol. 29, Springer, Berlin, Germany, pp. 63-72.

Edwards, D.C. (1997). Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Report 97-051, AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH, CO, U.S., pp. 18-29.

Garcia, M., Raes, D., Allen, R., and Herbas, C. (2004). "Dynamics of reference evapotranspiration in the Bolivian highlands (Altiplano)." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 125, No. 1-2, pp. 67-82. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.03.005

Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S., and Rubin, D.B. (2004). Bayesian data analysis. Chapman & Hall/CRC. Inc., NY, U.S. 10.1201/9780429258480

Gilks, W.R., Best, N.G., and Tan, K.K.C. (1995). "Adaptive rejection metropolis sampling within Gibbs sampling." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 455-472. 10.2307/2986138

Hargreaves, G.H. (1994). "Defining and using reference evapotranspiration." Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Vol. 120, No. 6, pp. 1132-1139. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1994)120:6(1132)

Hargreaves, G.H., and Allen, R.G. (2003). "History and evaluation of Hargreaves evapotranspiration equation." Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Vol. 129, No. 1, pp. 53-63. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(2003)129:1(53)

Hargreaves, G.H., and Samani, Z.A. (1982). "Estimating potential evapotranspiration." Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Division, ASCE, Vol. 108, pp. 223-230. 10.1061/JRCEA4.0001390

Hargreaves, G.H., and Samani, Z.A. (1985). "Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature." American Society of Agricultural Engineers, Vol. 1, pp. 96-99. 10.13031/2013.26773

Hobbins, M.T., Wood, A., McEvoy, D.J., Huntington, J.L., Morton, C., Anderson, M., and Hain, C. (2016). "The evaporative demand drought index. Part I: Linking drought evolution to variations in evaporative demand." Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. 1745-1761. 10.1175/JHM-D-15-0121.1

Kim, C.G., Lee, J., Lee, J.E., and Kim, H. (2020). "Evaluation of improvement effect on the spatial-temporal correction of several reference evapotranspiration methods." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 53, No. 9, pp. 701-715.

Kim, S.J., Kim, M.I., Lim, C.H., Lee, W.K., and Kim, B.J. (2017). "Applicability analysis of FAO56 Penman-Monteith methodology for estimating potential evapotranspiration in Andong Dam watershed using limited meteorological data." Journal of Climate Change Research, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 125-143. 10.15531/ksccr.2017.8.2.125

Kwon, H.H., Brown, C., and Lall, U. (2008). "Climate informed flood frequency analysis and prediction in Montana using hierarchical Bayesian modeling." Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, No. 5, L05404. 10.1029/2007GL032220

Lee, K.H., and Park, J.H. (2008). "Calibration of the hargreaves equation for the reference evapotranspiration estimation on a nation-wide scale." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 28, No. 6B, pp. 675-681.

Lee, K.H., Cho, H.Y., and Oh, N.S. (2008). "Calibration and validation of the Hargreaves equation for the reference evapotranspiration estimation in Gyeonggi bay watershed." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 413-422. 10.3741/JKWRA.2008.41.4.413

López-Urrea, R., de Santa Olalla, F.M., Fabeiro, C., and Moratalla, A. (2006). "Testing evapotranspiration equations using lysimeter observations in a semiarid climate." Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 85, No. 1-2, pp. 15-26. 10.1016/j.agwat.2006.03.014

McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., and Kleist, J. (1993). "The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales." Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, CA, U.S., Vol. 17, No. 22, pp. 179-183.

Moon, J.W. (2018). "Analysis of reference evapotranspiration change in Korea by climate change impact." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 18, No. 7, pp. 71-81. 10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.7.71

Moon, J.W., Jung, C.G., and Lee, D.R. (2013). "Parameter regionalization of Hargreaves equation based on climatological characteristics in Korea." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 46, No. 9, pp. 933-946. 10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.9.933

Palmer, W.C. (1965). Meteorological drought, research paper. Vol. 30, No. 45, U.S. Weather Bureau, MD, U.S.

Priestley, C.H.B., and Taylor, R.J. (1972). "On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters." Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 100, No. 2, pp. 81-92. 10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0081:OTAOSH>2.3.CO;2

Smith, M., Allen, R., Monteith, J.L., Perrier, A., and Segeren, A. (1992). Report. Expert consultation on revision of FAO methodologies for crop water requirements. Expert Consultation on Revision of FAO Methodologies for Crop Water Requirements. Rome, Italy.

Tate, E.L., and Gustard, A. (2000). "Drought definition: A hydrological perspective." Drought and drought mitigation in Europe, Dordrecht, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, Vol, 14, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 23-48. 10.1007/978-94-015-9472-1_3

Thorn, H.C.S. (1966). Some methods of climatological analysis. WMO Technical Note Number 81, Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, p. 53

Thornthwaite, C.W. (1948). "An approach toward a rational classification of climate." Geographical Review, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 55-94. 10.2307/210739

Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J.I. (2010). "A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index." Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, No. 7, pp. 1696-1718. 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1

Wilhite, D.A., and Glantz, M.H. (1985). "Understanding: The drought phenomenon: The role of definitions." Water International, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 111-120. 10.1080/02508068508686328

Wilks, D.S. (2011). Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic press, Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Willmott, C.J. (1981). "On the validation of models." Physical geography, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 184-194. 10.1080/02723646.1981.10642213

Won, J., Jang, S., Kim, K., and Kim, S. (2018). "Applicability of the evaporative demand drought index." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 18, No. 6, pp. 431-442. 10.9798/KOSHAM.2018.18.6.431

Yates, D., and Strzepek, K.M. (1994). Potential evapotranspiration methods and their impact on the assessment of river basin runoff under climate change. IASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.

Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 54
No :11
Pages :969-983
Received Date : 2021-09-29
Revised Date : 2021-10-26
Accepted Date : 2021-10-29
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.11.969

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

All Issue