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Research Article

Evaluation of conceptual rainfall-runoff models for different flow regimes and development of ensemble model

개념적 강우유출 모형의 유량구간별 적합성 평가 및 앙상블 모델 구축

Jae-Ung Yua
,
Moon-Hyung Parkb
,
Jin-Guk Kimc
,
Hyun-Han Kwond†
유 재웅a
,
박 문형b
,
김 진국c
,
권 현한d†
aMaster Student, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea
bSenior Researcher, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
cPost-doctoral Researcher, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang, Korea
dProfessor, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea
a세종대학교 건설환경공학과 석사과정
b한국건설기술연구원 수석연구원
c한국건설기술연구원 박사후연구원
d세종대학교 건설환경공학과 교수
*hkwon@sejong.ac.kr
28 February 2021. pp. 105-119
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Abstract

An increase in the frequency and intensity of both floods and droughts has been recently observed due to an increase in climate variability. Especially, land-use change associated with industrial structure and urbanization has led to an imbalance between water supply and demand, acting as a constraint in water resource management. Accurate rainfall-runoff analysis plays a critical role in evaluating water availability in the water budget analysis. This study aimed to explore various continuous rainfall-runoff models over the Soyanggang dam watershed. Moreover, the ensemble modeling framework combining multiple models was introduced to present scenarios on streamflow considering uncertainties. In the ensemble modeling framework, rainfall-runoff models with fewer parameters are generally preferred for effective regionalization. In this study, more than 40 continuous rainfall-runoff models were applied to the Soyanggang dam watershed, and nine rainfall-runoff models were primarily selected using different goodness-of-fit measures. This study confirmed that the ensemble model showed better performance than the individual model over different flow regimes.

Keywords
Ensemble model
Continuous rainfall-runoff model
Model optimization
Uncertainty

최근 우리나라의 계절적 강우변동폭이 점점 커져 홍수 및 가뭄의 발생빈도와 심도가 증가하고 있다. 특히, 도시화에 따른 토지이용변화, 산업구조변화 등은 수자원의 수요량 및 공급량 불균형으로 이어져 수자원 관리에서 제약조건으로 작용하고 있다. 유역 내의 물순환 평가에 있어서 물수지 모델 구축과 함께 정확한 강우-유출 분석은 매우 중요한 분석단계라 할 수 있다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 국내외 주요 연속강우-유출모형의 특성을 파악하고 소양강댐 유역에 대해서 적합성을 평가하였다. 미계측유역의 불확실성을 고려한 유량 시나리오를 제시하기 위하여 다수의 모형을 활용하는 앙상블 개념을 도입하였으며, 향후 미계측유역에 대한 적용을 위한 모형의 확장성을 고려하여 매개변수 개수 및 관측 유량에 대한 재현능력 특성 등을 종합적으로 평가하였다. 본 연구에서는 40개 이상의 국내외 연속강우-유출모형을 소양강댐에 적용하였으며, 통계적 지표를 이용하여 9개의 모형을 1차적으로 선정하였다. 선정된 모형을 대상으로 매개변수의 개수 및 저유량, 중간유량, 고유량으로 분리하여 재현성을 평가하고 최종적으로 앙상블모형을 제시하였으며, 단일 모형에 비해 개선된 관측유량 재현효과를 확인할 수 있었다.

키워드
앙상블모형
연속강우-유출모형
모형 최적화
불확실성
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 54
  • No :2
  • Pages :105-119
  • Received Date : 2020-11-10
  • Revised Date : 2021-01-14
  • Accepted Date : 2021-01-14
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2021.54.2.105
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