A study on the estimation of scale exponents and the application of scale invariance methods for temporal downscaling around nuclear power plant sites

Hyunjun Ahn; Daegi Hahm; Minkyu Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2024.57.11.911

All Issue

2024 Vol.57, Issue 11 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

A study on the estimation of scale exponents and the application of scale invariance methods for temporal downscaling around nuclear power plant sites 원전부지주변 시간 상세화를 위한 Scale Exponent 산정 및 Scale Invariance 적용 기법에 관한 연구

30 November 2024. pp. 911-920

PDF XML

Abstract

This study focuses on estimating hourly probability rainfall quantiles from daily rainfall data at nuclear power plant sites. The study estimated scale exponents and applied various scale invariance techniques to compare and evaluate the performance of these methods. Wolsong and Kori nuclear power plants were employed as the study sites. By comparing methods that apply scale properties to probability rainfall quantiles versus those that apply scale properties to the parameters of probability distribution models, it was found that the latter approach provides superior estimates of extreme probability rainfall quantiles. The methods proposed in this study are expected to enhance the stability and accuracy of estimating extreme probability rainfall quantile around nuclear power plant sites using global climate model data.

Keywords

Climate change

Temporal downscaling

Scale invariance

Frequency analysis

Nuclear power plant

본 연구에서는 주요 국가시설물인 원자력발전소의 부지를 대상으로 일 단위의 확률강우량으로부터 시 단위의 확률강우량을 추정하기 위해 scale exponent를 산정하고 scale invariance 기법의 다양한 적용 방법을 검토하여 그 성능을 평가하였다. 연구 대상 지점으로는 월성 및 고리 원자력발전소 부지를 선정하였다. 확률강우량 추정에 있어, 스케일 성질을 확률강우량 값 자체에 적용하는 방법과 확률분포 모형의 매개변수에 적용하는 방법을 비교한 결과, 확률분포 모형에 스케일 인자를 적용하여 극치 확률강우량을 추정하는 방법이 더 우수한 성능을 보이는 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구에서 제시한 방법은 원자력 발전소 부지 주변의 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 활용한 극치 수문사상 해석의 안정성과 정확도를 향상시키는데 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드

기후변화

시간상세화기법

스케일모델

빈도해석

원자력발전소

References

Bae, D.-H., Jung, I.-W., Lee, B.-J., and Lee, M.-H. (2011). "Future Korean water resources projection considering uncertainty of GCMs and hydrological models." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 44, No. 5, pp. 389-406.

10.3741/JKWRA.2011.44.5.389

Gregersen, I.B., Sorup, H.J.D., Madsen, H., Rosbjerg, D., Mikkelsen, P.S., and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. (2013). "Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales." Climatic Change, Vol. 118, No. 3, pp. 783-797.

10.1007/s10584-012-0669-0

Gupta, V.K., and Waymire, E. (1990). "Multiscaling properties of spatial rainfall and river flow distributions." Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, pp. 1999-2009.

10.1029/JD095iD03p01999

Heo, J.-H. (2016). Statistical hydrology, Gumi Press.

Heo, J.-H., Ahn, H., Shin, J., Kjeldsen, T., and Jeong, C. (2019). "Probability distributions for a quantile mapping technique for a bias correction of precipitation data: A case study to precipitation data under climate change." Water, Vol. 11, No. 7, 1475.

10.3390/w11071475

Hwang, J.-Y., Ahn, J., Jeong, C., and Heo, J.-H. (2018). "A study on the variation of design flood due to climate change in the un_gauged urban catchment." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 51, No. 5, pp. 395-404.

Kim, C.-G., Cho, J.-P., Lee, J.-E., and Chang, S.-W. (2023a). "Future hydrological changes in Jeju Island based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 56, No. 11, pp. 737-748.

Kim, H.-S., Hwang, J., Ahn, J., and Jeong, C. (2018). "Analysis of rate of discharge change on urban catchment considering climate change." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 645-654.

Kim, S., Shin, J., Ahn, H., and Heo, J.-H. (2019). "Selecting climate models to determine future extreme rainfall quantiles." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 55-69.

10.9798/KOSHAM.2019.19.1.55

Kim, S.-T., Lee, W.-S., Jung, I.-W., Han, J.-M., Byun, Y.-H., and Kim, J.-U. (2023b). "Change in extreme precipitation by watersheds of South Korea under future Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) Scenarios." Journal of Climate Change Research, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 83-93.

10.15531/KSCCR.2023.14.2.083

Kourtis, I.M., Nalbantis, I., Tsakiris, G., Psiloglou, B.E., Tsihrintzis, V.A. (2023) "Updating IDF curves under climate change: Impact on rainfall-induced runoff in urban basins." Water Resources Management, Vol. 37, pp. 2403-2428.

10.1007/s11269-022-03252-8

Koutsoyiannis, D. (2004). "Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: II. Empirical investigation of long rainfall records." Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 591-610.

10.1623/hysj.49.4.591.54424

Ministry of Environment (ME). (2019). Standard guidelines for calculating flood volume.

National Institute of Meteorological Sciences (NIMS). (2022). South Korea detailed climate change outlook report (Revised edition).

Olsson, J., and Burlando, P. (2002). "Reproduction of temporal scaling by a rectangular pulse rainfall model." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 16, pp. 611-630.

10.1002/hyp.307

Rowekamp, M., Ganssmantel, G., and Strack, C. (2017). "Operating experience with hydrological external hazards and their potential safety significance." Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 111-118.

United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC). (2018). NRC inspection manual - Analysis of flooding vulnerabilities. Washington, DC, U.S.

Wan Mazlan, W.A.S., Tukimat, N.N.A. (2023). "Comparative analyses on disaggregation methods for the rainfall projection." Water Resources Management, Vol. 37, pp. 4195-4209.

10.1007/s11269-023-03546-5

Willems, P. (2013). "Adjustment of extreme rainfall statistics accounting for multidecadal climate oscillations." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 490, pp. 126-133.

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.03.034

Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 57
No :11
Pages :911-920
Received Date : 2024-09-09
Revised Date : 2024-10-16
Accepted Date : 2024-10-30
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2024.57.11.911

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

All Issue