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2026 Vol.59, Issue 5 Preview Page
Long-term runoff simulation using a physically based distributed model: Case studies of the Cheoncheon basin and the Andong-dam basin

물리기반 분포형 모형의 장기 유출 해석: 천천 유역과 안동댐 유역 사례

Jinhyeong Leea
,
Dong Kook Woob
,
Giha Leec
,
Minho Yeond*
이 진형a
,
우 동국b
,
이 기하c
,
연 민호d*
aPh.D. Student, School of Advanced Science and Technology Convergence, Kyungpook National University, Sangju, Korea
bAssistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu, Korea
cProfessor, School of Advanced Science and Technology Convergence, Kyungpook National University, Sangju, Korea
dPost-doctoral Researcher, Climate Crisis Institute, Kyungpook National University, Sangju, Korea
a경북대학교 미래과학기술융합학부 박사과정
b계명대학교 토목공학과 조교수
c경북대학교 미래과학기술융합학부 교수
d경북대학교 기후위기재난대응연구소 박사후연구원
*Corresponding Author
31 May 2026. pp. 459-471
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Abstract

The need for systematic strategies for long-term water resource conservation is increasing due to recent climate change. Furthermore, relying solely on observational data to characterize watershed hydrology during extreme rainfall or prolonged droughts presents significant challenges for effective water resource management. Although rainfall–runoff models are widely used for long-term runoff analysis, many previous domestic studies have primarily employed empirical or lumped models. However, rapid changes in watershed characteristics caused by urbanization and land-use changes necessitate the use of physically based distributed models capable of discretizing watersheds into grid cells. This study applied a physically based distributed model for long-term runoff analysis in two distinct catchments: the Cheoncheon watershed (upper Geum River) and the Andong Dam watershed (upper Nakdong River). The model demonstrated satisfactory performance following calibration (2017–2020) and validation (2021–2024), achieving NSE, RSR, and R2 values of 0.75, 0.50, and 0.75 for Cheoncheon and 0.75, 0.50, and 0.80 for Andong, respectively. Furthermore, Flow Duration Curve (FDC) analysis confirmed the stable reproduction of overall runoff characteristics from flood to dry seasons, despite partial overestimation and underestimation of peak flows and underestimation of low flows during certain periods. In the rainfall sensitivity analysis, a ±10% rainfall variation in the Andong watershed resulted in a nearly symmetrical ±15% change in runoff. Conversely, the Cheoncheon watershed showed asymmetric sensitivity: a 10% rainfall increase led to a 10% runoff increase, whereas a 10% decrease resulted in a 15% runoff reduction, indicating greater sensitivity to rainfall decreases. These observed uncertainties are likely attributable to factors such as differences in watershed scale and the simplified representation of soil properties. In conclusion, this study empirically demonstrates both the applicability and inherent limitations of distributed modeling in Korean watersheds, thereby providing useful foundational information for future hydrological modeling research and water resource management planning.

Keywords
Physically based distributed model
Long-term runoff analysis
Cheoncheon watershed
Andong Dam watershed
Water resources management

최근 기후변화로 인해 장기적인 수자원 보존을 위한 체계적인 관리 방안이 필요하며, 관련 대책 수립 시 극한 강우 또는 장기간 무강우 시기에는 관측 자료만으로 유역의 수문학적 특성을 파악하기 어렵다. 강우-유출 모형을 통해 장기 유출해석을 수행하지만, 국내연구는 경험적 또는 집중형 모형을 주로 활용한다. 그러나 도시개발 등으로 인해 유역의 형상이 급격하게 변화함에 따라, 유역을 격자로 세분화할 수 있는 물리적 기반 분포형 모형의 필요성이 강조되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 물리적 기반 분포형 모형을 적용하여 금강 상류의 천천 유역과 낙동강 상류의 안동댐 유역을 대상으로 장기 유출 해석을 수행하였다. 모형 보정(2017-2020년)과 검증(2021-2024년) 결과, 두 유역 모두에서 NSE, RSR, R2 값이 천천 유역 0.75, 0.50, 0.75, 안동댐 유역 0.75, 0.50, 0.80으로 나타나 적합한 모의 성능을 보였다. 또한 유황 분석 결과, 홍수기부터 갈수기까지 전반적인 유출 특성을 안정적으로 재현하였으나, 일부 기간에서는 첨두유량의 과대·과소 모의와 갈수기 유량의 과소 추정이 확인되었다. 강우 변화에 따른 유출량 민감도 분석의 경우, 안동댐 유역은 강우의 증감(±10%)에 따라 유출량이 약 ±15% 수준의 대칭적인 유량 변화를 나타냈으며, 천천 유역은 강우가 10% 증가할 때 유량이 10% 증가, 10% 감소할 때 유량이 15% 감소하여 강우 감소에 조금 더 민감한 반응을 보였다. 이러한 불확실성은 유역 규모 차이, 토양 물성 단순화 등 다양한 요인에서 기인하는 것으로 판단된다. 연구 결과는 국내 유역에 물리적 기반 분포형 모형을 적용하여 그 적용성과 한계를 실증적으로 제시하였으며, 향후 수문 모형 연구와 수자원 관리 계획 수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
물리기반 분포형 모형
장기유출 해석
천천 유역
안동댐 유역
수자원 관리
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 59
  • No :5
  • Pages :459-471
  • Received Date : 2025-11-17
  • Revised Date : 2026-03-05
  • Accepted Date : 2026-03-12
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.5.459
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