All Issue

2026 Vol.59, Issue 8 Preview Page
Assessment of relative snow risk using ERA5-Land reanalysis: A case study of heavy snowfall events in 2024-2025

ERA5-Land 재분석 자료를 이용한 상대적 적설 위험도 평가: 2024-2025년 폭설 사례 연구

Hyunho Jeona
,
Doyoung Kimb
,
Doseob Ahnc
,
Seungchul Kimc
,
Sangil Kimd
,
Yangwon Leee
,
Minha Choifg*
전 현호a
,
김 도영b
,
안 도섭c
,
김 승철c
,
김 상일d
,
이 양원e
,
최 민하fg*
aPh.D Candidate, Department of Global Smart City, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea
bPh.D Student, Department of Global Smart City, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea
cPrincipal Researcher, Satellite Communication Infra Research Section, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea
dSenior Engineer, Satellite Communication Infra Research Section, Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute, Daejeon, Korea
eProfessor, Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Division of Earth Environmental System Science, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea
fProfessor, Department of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea
gProfessor, School of Civil, Architecture Engineering and Landscape Architecture, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, Korea
a성균관대학교 글로벌스마트시티융합전공 박사수료
b성균관대학교 글로벌스마트시티융합전공 박사과정
c한국전자통신연구원 위성통신인프라연구실 책임연구원
d한국전자통신연구원 위성통신인프라연구실 선임연구원
e부경대학교 지구환경시스템과학부 공간정보공학전공 교수
f성균관대학교 수자원전문대학원 수자원학과 교수
g성균관대학교 건설환경공학부 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 August 2026. pp. 895-906
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

Heavy snowfall is a major natural hazard in mid‐ to high‐latitude regions, disrupting transportation, power systems, and water resources. This study analyzes the temporal variability of snow depth and air temperature over the Seoul-Gyeonggi metropolitan area using ERA5-Land reanalysis, and develops a relative snow-risk indicator that integrates topographic effects, freezing persistence, and climatological extremeness. Three representative events (29 Nov 2024; 7 Jan 2025; 18 Mar 2025) were examined with ERA5-Land snow depth and 2-m air temperature. Multi-year climatological quantiles (2013-2022) were constructed from ERA5-Land and combined with short-term snow/freezing persistence and terrain factors (e.g., slope, vegetation attenuation term) to derive a probability-based relative risk metric. Case analyses show that ERA5-Land consistently reproduces an increase in snow depth following temperature drops below 0°C, with event-dependent delays linked to thermal conditions. Spatially, higher risk appears over the northern and eastern uplands and hill terrains of Gyeonggi Province, whereas lower risk dominates the plains across Seoul and the southwestern sector. These patterns are interpreted as the combined influence of elevation and slope—promoting lower temperatures and sustained freezing—together with the geomorphic characteristics of forested areas. The proposed risk metric reflects not the absolute magnitude of snow depth but the degree of anomaly of concurrent snow and freezing relative to the historical distribution, providing a quantitative basis for assessing snowfall vulnerability in the metropolitan setting. Integration with ground observations and high-resolution satellite data is expected to support operational hazard mapping and urban climate-risk management in future work.

Keywords
Snow depth
ERA5-Land
Freezing persistence, Snow risk
Freezing persistence, Snow risk

폭설은 중·고위도 지역에서 빈번히 발생하는 주요 자연재해로, 교통·전력·수자원 등 사회기반시설에 심각한 피해를 초래한다. 본 연구에서는 ERA5-Land 재분석 자료를 활용하여 수도권 지역을 대상으로 적설심과 기온의 시계열 변동 특성을 분석하고, 지형·결빙 지속성·기후적 이상성을 결합한 상대적 적설위험도를 산정하였다. 2024년 11월부터 2025년 3월까지 발생한 세 차례 주요 폭설 사례(2024년 11월 29일, 2025년 1월 7일, 2025년 3월 18일)를 대상으로 분석하였으며, ERA5-Land의 적설심 및 2 m 기온 자료를 이용하였다. 또한, 2013-2022년 장기 ERA5-Land 자료를 기반으로 다년 기후분위를 구성하고, 이를 적설·결빙 지속성과 지형 요인(경사, 식생 감쇠항 등)과 결합하여 확률 기반의 상대적 위험도 지표를 도출하였다. 사례 분석 결과, ERA5-Land 자료는 기온 하강 이후 적설심이 증가하는 시계열적 반응을 일관되게 재현하였으며, 시기별 열적 조건에 따른 적설 축적의 지연 특성이 확인되었다. 공간 분포 분석에서는 경기 북부와 동부의 고지대 및 구릉지에서 높은 위험도가 나타났고, 서울 및 서남부 평야 지역에서는 낮은 위험도가 산출되었다. 이러한 경향은 고도 및 경사 증가로 인한 저온·결빙 지속성과 산림 지역의 지형적 특성이 복합적으로 작용한 결과로 해석된다. 본 연구에서 제시한 적설위험도는 단순한 적설심의 절대적 크기가 아니라, 과거 기후분포 대비 현재 적설 및 결빙 상태의 이례성을 반영한 상대적 지표로서, 수도권 지역의 폭설 취약성을 정량적으로 평가할 수 있는 유효한 접근으로 판단된다. 또한, 향후 지상관측 및 고해상도 위성자료와의 융합을 통해 재해 대응형 공간 위험지도 구축 및 도시 기후리스크 관리 체계 발전에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
적설 깊이
ERA5-Land
결빙 지속성
적설위험도
References
1

Akyurek, Z., Kuter, S., Karaman, Ç.H., and Akpınar, B. (2023). “Understanding the snow cover climatology over Turkey from ERA5-Land reanalysis data and MODIS snow cover frequency product.” Geosciences, Vol. 13, No. 10, 311.

10.3390/geosciences13100311
2

Bokhorst, S., Pedersen, S.H., Brucker, L., Anisimov, O., Bjerke, J.W., Brown, R.D., Ehrich, D., Essery, R.L.H., Heilig, A., Ingvander, S., et al. (2016). “Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.” Ambio, Vol. 45, No. 5, pp. 516-537.

10.1007/s13280-016-0770-026984258PMC4980315
3

Cohen, J., Screen, J.A., Furtado, J.C., Barlow, M., Whittleston, D., Coumou, D., Francis, J., Dethloff, K., Entekhabi, D., Overland, J., and Jones, J. (2014). “Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather.” Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, No. 9, pp. 627-637. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2234.

10.1038/ngeo2234
4

Eckert, N., and Giacona, F. (2023). “Towards a holistic paradigm for long-term snow avalanche risk assessment and mitigation.” Ambio, Vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 711-732

10.1007/s13280-022-01804-136324022PMC9989122
5

Glawion, L., Polz, J., Kunstmann, H., Fersch, B., and Chwala, C. (2025). “Global spatio-temporal ERA5 precipitation downscaling to km and sub-hourly scale using generative AI.” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 8, No. 1, 219.

10.1038/s41612-025-01103-y
6

Harakawa, R., Mikado, Y., Sunako, S., Yamaguchi, S., and Iwahashi, M. (2025). “Quantifying snow depth fluctuations based on a data-driven approach: Case study in Japan.” Cold Regions Science and Technology, Vol. 241, 104690.

10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104690
7

Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., and Schepers, D. et al. (2020). “The ERA5 global reanalysis.” Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, No. 730, pp. 1999-2049.

10.1002/qj.3803
8

Hori, M., Sugiura, K., Kobayashi, K., Aoki, T., Tanikawa, T., Kuchiki, K., Niwano, M., and Enomoto, H. (2017). “A 38-year (1978-2015) Northern Hemisphere daily snow cover extent product derived using consistent objective criteria from satellite-borne optical sensors.” Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 191, pp. 402-418.

10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.023
9

Jeon, H., Lee, S., Lee, Y., Kim, J., and Choi, M. (2023). “Evaluation of bias and uncertainty in snow depth reanalysis data over South Korea.” Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 56, No. 9, pp. 543-551.

10.3741/JKWRA.2023.56.9.543
10

Jung, D.-H. (2025). Unseasonal snow disrupts commuters, flights across Korea. The Korea Times, accessed 14 October 2025, <https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/society/20250318/unseasonal-snow-disrupts-commuters-flights-across-korea>

11

Jung, S.H., Im, E.S., and Han, S.O. (2012). “The effect of topography and sea surface temperature on heavy snowfall in the Yeongdong region: A case study with high resolution WRF simulation.” Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp. 259-273.

10.1007/s13143-012-0026-2
12

Kim, K., Bang, W., Chang, E.C., Tapiador, F.J., Tsai, C.L., Jung, E., and Lee, G. (2021). “Impact of wind pattern and complex topography on snow microphysics during International Collaborative Experiment for PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018).” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 21, No. 15, pp. 11955-11978.

10.5194/acp-21-11955-2021
13

Kim, M.-Y. (2024). Cold snap chills Korea after two days of heavy snowfall. Korea JoongAng Daily, accessed 14 October 2025, <https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/cold-snap-chills-korea-after-two-days-of-heavy-snowfall/12331987>.

14

Kim, M.-Y. (2025). Freezing temperatures, heavy snow expected to hit Korea from Tuesday. Korea JoongAng Daily, accessed 14 October 2025, <https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/freezing-temperatures-heavy-snow-expected-to-hit-korea-from-tuesday/12226935>.

15

Krinner, G., Derksen, C., Essery, R., Flanner, M., Hagemann, S., Clark, M., Hall, A., Rott, H., Brutel-Vuilmet, C., and Kim, H., et al. (2018). “ESM-SnowMIP: Assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks.” Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, No. 12, pp. 5027-5049.

10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018
16

Lei, Y., Pan, J., Xiong, C., Jiang, L., and Shi, J. (2023). “Snow depth and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau observed from space in against ERA5: Matters of scale.” Climate Dynamics, Vol. 60, No. 5-6, pp. 1523-1541.

10.1007/s00382-022-06376-0
17

Lievens, H., Demuzere, M., Marshall, H.-P., Reichle, R.H., Brucker, L., Brangers, I., de Rosnay, P., Dumont, M., Girotto, M., and Immerzeel, W.W. et al. (2019). “Snow depth variability in the Northern Hemisphere mountains observed from space.” Nature Communications, Vol. 10, No. 1, 4629.

10.1038/s41467-019-12566-y31604957PMC6789005
18

Lin, S., Chen, X., Liang, S., Liu, Y., Li, Y., and Li, H. (2025). “Monthly 0.05 winter months snow depth dataset for the Northern Hemisphere from 21 CMIP6 models.” Scientific Data, Vol. 12, No. 1, 603.

10.1038/s41597-025-04925-w40210961PMC11985958
19

Liu, L., Ma, Y., Yao, N., and Ma, W. (2021). “Diagnostic analysis of a regional heavy snowfall event over the Tibetan Plateau using NCEP reanalysis data and WRF.” Climate Dynamics, Vol. 56, No. 7, pp. 2451-2467.

10.1007/s00382-020-05598-4
20

Liu, Z., Filhol, S., and Treichler, D. (2025). “Retrieving snow depth distribution by downscaling ERA5 Reanalysis with ICESat-2 laser altimetry.” Cold Regions Science and Technology, Vol. 239, 104580.

10.1016/j.coldregions.2025.104580
21

Ma, L., Qin, D., Bian, L., Xiao, C., and Luo, Y. (2011). “Assessment of snow cover vulnerability over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.” Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 93-100.

10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00093
22

Muñoz-Sabater, J., Dutra, E., Agustí-Panareda, A., Albergel, C., Arduini, G., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Choulga, M., Harrigan, S., and Hersbach, H., (2021). “ERA5-Land: A state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications.” Earth System Science Data, Vol. 13, No. 9, pp. 4349-4383.

10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021
23

Ortner, G., Bründl, M., Kropf, C.M., Röösli, T., Bühler, Y., and Bresch, D.N. (2023). “Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions.” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 2089-2110.

10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023
24

Ortner, G., Michel, A., Kropf, C.M., Bründl, M., and Bresch, D.N. (2025). “Assessing the impacts of climate change on snow avalanche-induced risk in alpine regions.” Natural Hazards, Vol. 121, No. 9, pp. 10877-10904.

10.1007/s11069-025-07229-9
25

Rahimi, R., Ebtehaj, A., Panegrossi, G., Milani, L., Ringerud, S.E., and Turk, F.J. (2022). “Vulnerability of passive microwave snowfall retrievals to physical properties of snowpack: A perspective from dense media radiative transfer theory.” IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Vol. 60, pp. 1-13.

10.1109/TGRS.2022.3184530
26

Sturm, M., Taras, B., Liston, G.E., Derksen, C., Jonas, T., and Lea, J. (2010). “Estimating snow water equivalent using snow depth data and climate classes.” Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 11, No. 6, pp. 1380-1394.

10.1175/2010JHM1202.1
27

Sun, X., Miao, L., Feng, X., and Zhan, X. (2024). “Snow disaster risk assessment based on long-term remote sensing data: A case study of the Qinghai–Tibet plateau region in Xizang.” Remote Sensing, Vol. 16, No. 10, 1661.

10.3390/rs16101661
Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 59
  • No :8
  • Pages :895-906
  • Received Date : 2025-10-14
  • Revised Date : 2026-06-17
  • Accepted Date : 2026-06-18
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.8.895
Journal Informaiton Journal of Korea Water Resources Association Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Online Submission
Archives
  • scopus
  • KCI-수자원
  • NRF
  • KOFST
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • crosscheck
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close