An input-output analysis of the medium- and long-term economic impacts of water supply disruptions

Ju-Hee Kim; Hyo-Yeon Choi

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.8.887

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2026 Vol.59, Issue 8 Preview Page Next Page

An input-output analysis of the medium- and long-term economic impacts of water supply disruptions 산업연관분석을 활용한 수도 공급 지장의 중장기 국가 경제 파급효과 분석

31 August 2026. pp. 887-894

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the medium- and long-term economic effects of water supply disruptions on the national economy under increasing risks driven by climate change and aging infrastructure. To this end, a input–output analysis is conducted using Korea’s input–output tables from 1990 to 2023, and the impacts of supply shortages in the water supply sector on total industrial output are quantitatively estimated. The results indicate that the economy-wide supply shortage effect of water supply disruptions exceeds unity for most of the study period. From a sectoral perspective, manufacturing industries exhibited relatively high supply shortage effects during the 1990s and early 2000s; in more recent years, the impacts have increasingly shifted toward service sectors, particularly professional, scientific, and technical services, as well as health and social welfare services. Overall, this study empirically demonstrates the importance of water supply stability for the national economy and provides foundational evidence for policy formulation related to climate adaptation and strategic investment in water infrastructure.

Keywords

Water supply disruption

Input–output analysis

Supply-driven model

Economic impact

Medium- and long-term analysis

본 연구는 기후변화와 노후화된 인프라로 인해 물 부족 위험이 증가하는 상황에서, 수도 공급 중단이 국가 경제에 미치는 중·장기적 경제적 영향을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 1990년부터 2023년까지의 산업연관표를 활용하여 산업연관분석을 수행하였으며, 수도산업의 공급 부족이 전체 산업 생산에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 수도산업의 공급 지장 효과는 대부분의 분석 기간 동안 1을 초과 하는 것으로 나타나 수도 공급 중단이 국가 경제 전반에 상당한 영향을 미치는 것으로 확인되었다. 산업별 분석 결과, 1990년대와 2000년대 초반에는 제조업에서 상대적으로 높은 공급지장효과가 나타난 반면, 최근에는 전문·과학·기술 서비스업과 보건·사회복지 서비스업을 중심으로 서비스 산업에 대한 영향이 확대되는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 수도 공급 안정성이 국가 경제에 미치는 중요성을 실증적으로 제시하였으며, 기후 적응 및 수도 인프라 투자 정책 수립을 위한 기초 자료를 제공한다.

키워드

수도 공급 지장

산업연관분석

공급유도형 모형

경제적 효과

중장기 분석

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 59
No :8
Pages :887-894
Received Date : 2026-03-03
Revised Date : 2026-06-10
Accepted Date : 2026-06-15
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2026.59.8.887

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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