Estimating time of concentration by DMCA method

Ji Sung Yoo; Sang Ug Kim

doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.11.1005

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2025 Vol.58, Issue 11 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Estimating time of concentration by DMCA method DMCA 기법을 이용한 도달시간 추정

30 November 2025. pp. 1005-1015

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Abstract

The time of concentration (T_c) is a critical parameter in the planning and design of hydraulic structures. Conventional methods such as physical methods with isochrones and regression based on topographic data, usually produced results with significant uncertainty. Therefore, The objective of this study is to introduce the newly developed method and to test its applicability to a domestic watershed. This study introduced the Detrending Moving-average Cross-correlation Analysis (DMCA) method, which can estimate T_c directly from observed rainfall and runoff data. Application with six conventional formulas to the Soyangang Dam basin yielded T_c values ranging from 10.20 hr to 46.24 hr, highlighting substantial uncertainty. DMCA method showed the reduced uncertainty as data length increased, with T_c estimated at 13.00 hr when the full data set was used. This study has certain limitations, including the use of a single watershed and rainfall station, as well as subjective screening of rainfall and runoff data. Future research should extend the analysis to a larger number of gauged basins to identify watershed-specific characteristics of existing T_c formulas and to propose appropriate T_c ranges. Also the DMCA method may provide an alternative approach for T_c estimation in ungauged basins.

Keywords

Time of concentration

Conventional formulas for T_c

DMCA

Uncertainty

도달시간(time of concentration, T_c)은 수공구조물의 계획 및 설계에서 중요한 인자이다. 현재 도달시간은 등시간선을 이용한 물리적 방법과 지형적 자료를 이용한 회귀분석 공식에 의해 주로 추정되고 있다. 이 같은 방식에 의한 도달시간 추정결과는 불확실성이 매우 크므로 실무적용에 어려움이 있다는 점이 기존 연구자들에 의해 제시된 바 있다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 이와 같은 문제점을 개선하기 위하여 여러 가정에 기반한 도달시간 산정방식이 아닌 관측된 강우와 유출자료만을 이용하여 도달시간을 추정할 수 있는 DMCA (Detrending Moving-average Cross-correlation Analysis) 기법을 소개하였다. 소양강 중권역에 기존의 6가지 도달시간 공식을 사용한 결과, 도달시간이 최소 10.20 hr부터 최대 46.24 hr로 산정되어 불확실성의 범위가 매우 넓음을 확인하였다. DMCA 기법을 사용한 결과는 자료의 길이가 증가됨에 따라 불확실성이 범위가 감소함을 확인하였으며, 모든 자료를 사용한 경우의 도달시간은 13.00 hr으로 산정되었다. 이 연구의 목적은 DMCA 기법의 작동원리를 소개하고 국내 유역에 시범적으로 적용해 보는 것이다. 따라서 이 연구에서는 1개 유역과 1개 강우관측소를 사용하였다는 점, 강우자료와 유출자료의 사전 보정이 주관적으로 진행되었다는 점 등의 한계점이 존재한다. 향후 국내 대다수 계측유역에 대한 분석결과를 이용하여 기존의 도달시간 공식들의 대상유역별 특성을 규명함으로써 유역별 적정 도달시간의 범위를 제안할 필요가 있으며, 궁극적으로 미계측유역에서의 도달시간 산정을 위한 대안을 도출할 필요가 있다.

키워드

도달시간

기존 도달시간 산정공식

DMCA

불확실성

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Information

Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
Volume : 58
No :11
Pages :1005-1015
Received Date : 2025-08-07
Revised Date : 2025-10-07
Accepted Date : 2025-10-10
DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.11.1005

Journal of Korea Water Resources Association ISSN:2799-8746(Print) 2799-8754(Online) 한국수자원학회 논문집

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