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2025 Vol.58, Issue 11 Preview Page

Research Article

Comparative analysis of rainfall-runoff correlation for improving streamflow prediction accuracy

하천 유량 예측 정확성 향상을 위한 강우-유출 상관성 비교 분석

Dongkyu Kima
,
Minhyuk Kangb
,
Kyoungwon Minc
,
Gyumin Leed
,
Doosun Kange*
김 동규a
,
강 민혁b
,
민 경원c
,
이 규민d
,
강 두선e*
aMaster’s Course, Department of Civil Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea
bUndergraduate Researcher, Department of Civil Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea
cResearch Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea
dResearch Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea
eProfessor, Department of Civil Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Korea
a경희대학교 사회기반시스템공학과 석사과정
b경희대학교 사회기반시스템공학과 학사과정
c경희대학교 사회기반시스템공학과 연구교수
d경희대학교 사회기반시스템공학과 연구교수
e경희대학교 사회기반시스템공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 November 2025. pp. 1017-1029
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Abstract

Forecasting streamflow is essential for preparedness against flash floods triggered by intense rainfall and for establishing reliable early-warning systems. Streamflow is primarily influenced by rainfall within watershed, which has led to the development of various streamflow prediction techniques. Conventionally, streamflow prediction has been preformed using total rainfall and total runoff data. However, this approach has some limitations in that it includes rainfall events on dry soil or that do not substantially contribute to runoff. In this study, we attempted to investigate more suitable data for streamflow prediction by performing correlation analysis for total rainfall-total runoff sets and effective rainfall-direct runoff events. As a result, the effective rainfall-direct runoff combination relatively achieved higher correlation coefficients and lower error metrics (RMSE, MAE) compared to the total rainfall-total runoff combination, indicating it could improve the accuracy of streamflow prediction. Furthermore, the initial loss ratio and antecedent soil moisture conditions exerted significant control on both the correlation structure and error magnitude. In this study, we investigated the potential of using effective rainfall-direct runoff sets to improve the reliability of streamflow prediction. The findings are expected to contribute to the future development of data-driven river flow prediction models.

Keywords
Total rainfall-total runoff
Effective rainfall-direct runoff
Correlation analysis
Streamflow prediction

하천 유량의 예측은 집중 호우에 의한 돌발 홍수에 대비하고 조기 경보 체계를 구축하기 위해 필수적이다. 하천 유량은 주로 유역 내 강우에 의해 영향을 받으며, 이를 기반으로 다양한 유량 예측 기법들이 개발되어 왔다. 기존의 유량 예측은 총강우-총유출 자료를 활용하여 수행되어 왔으나, 유출에 실질적 영향을 미치지 않는 소규모 강우나 건조한 토양에 내린 강우까지 포함됨으로써 유량 예측 정확성이 저하되는 한계가 존재하였다. 본 연구에서는 총강우-총유출과 유효강우-직접유출의 상관성 분석을 각각 수행하여 하천 유량 예측에 보다 적합한 조합을 평가하고자 하였다. 분석 결과, 유효강우-직접유출 조합이 총강우-총유출 조합에 비해 상대적으로 높은 상관계수와 낮은 오차 지표(RMSE, MAE)를 보여, 하천 유량 예측의 정확도를 향상시킬 수 있을 것으로 판단하였다. 또한, 강우의 초기 손실률과 선행토양함수조건은 상관 구조와 오차 크기에 중요한 영향을 미치는 요인으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 하천 유량 예측의 신뢰도를 제고할 수 있는 방안으로 유효강우–직접유출 자료의 활용 가능성을 검토하였으며, 향후 데이터 기반의 하천 유량 예측 모형 개발에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

키워드
총강우-총유출
유효강우-직접유출
상관성 분석
하천 유량 예측
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Information
  • Publisher :KOREA WATER RESOURECES ASSOCIATION
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국수자원학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국수자원학회 논문집
  • Volume : 58
  • No :11
  • Pages :1017-1029
  • Received Date : 2025-09-09
  • Revised Date : 2025-10-08
  • Accepted Date : 2025-10-10
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2025.58.11.1017
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